Research
The content listed is not for investment, financial, accounting or tax advice and is provided for informational purposes only.
Forestry & Paper: Textile Fibre Insights
Key message: Cotton in the green (3 weeks in a row) and is trading at a 2% premium to VSF. VSF is stable, while polyester is further in the red. Spot DP down 1% to USD 948/t. VSF inventory days continue to tighten (now at 25.0) and the average op. rate improves further to 69%. VSF theoretical profit remain in the red but continues to improve (-USD 185/t). Lenzing and Grasim recent trading updates point to continued margin pressure for VSF producers until demand improves – “this could take a few quarters”.
Forestry & Paper: SAPPI Q4 22E Insights
Key message: Strong Q4 expected, with record quarterly EBITDA print of USD 439mn (+203% y/y & 18% q/q) and EPS of USD 0.47/share. We expect net debt/EBITDA to decline to 0.9x (net debt: USD 1,184mn).
Raubex- 1H FY23 Results
Key message: The order book growth has stalled and while growth prospects remain good there is timing risk for replacement work.
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Attacq Limited: FY22 results and valuation update
Key message: Attacq’s FY22 financial performance was significantly ahead of guidance and expectations. While its near-term dividend yield (8.5% forward) does not screen attractively relative to peers and may limit its re-rating potential in the near-term, we think...
Forestry & Paper: Monthly Industry Insights
Key message: Graphic Paper prices further in the green in October, while pulp and containerboard were mostly stable. OCC was down 33% m/m. October saw share prices claw back losses from the previous month, led by Sylvamo (+42%) and Sappi (+29%).
Forestry & Paper: Smurfit Kappa Paper Packaging Insights
Key message: Corrugated box volumes in the red (similar to Mondi and DS Smith) on the back of slower demand and a high base in 2022. This is likely to persist into Q4, with further box price increases unlikely as costs are moderating. European containerboard stocks “are not too bad” and margins are currently strong given lower OCC and energy costs.
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Calgro M3 – 1H FY23 Results
Key message: 2H should see revenue of approx. R100m as units under construction are transferred. A strong pipeline (with Frankenwald doubling opportunities) with infrastructure costs mostly expensed should ensure sustainable earnings in the medium term.
Forestry & Paper: Textile Fibre Insights
Key message: Cotton in the red (again) and is trading at a 2% discount to VSF. VSF tracks cotton and spot DP down 2% to USD 1,000/t. VSF inventory days stable at 27.0, while the average op. rate improves further to 68%. VSF theoretical profit deeper in the red at -USD 278/t, likely to cause further VSF and DP price pressure.