- October average price changes: NBSK pulp -1% m/m; +11% y/y; BHKP pulp flat m/m; +21% y/y; China BHKP net pulp flat m/m; +47% y/y; China NBSK net pulp -1% m/m; +19% y/y; BCTMP -6% m/m; +33% y/y; LWC +3% m/m; +73% y/y; CWF +3% m/m; +74% y/y; UWF +2% m/m; +54% y/y; Newsprint +4% m/m; +81% y/y; US CFS flat m/m; +26% y/y; Kraftliner -1% m/m; +15% y/y; Testliner flat m/m; +20% y/y; OCC -33% m/m; -47% y/y.
- October saw most shares claw back losses from the previous month: Top gainers were Sylvamo (+42%); Sappi (+29%), Suzano (+20%) and Klabin (+19%). Top losers included Lenzing (-13%) and SCA (-8%). Mondi was up 12% m/m.
- All peers (except Lenzing) are trading at a discount to their 5-yr average EV/EBITDA: Billerud and CMPC are trading at the deepest discount (36%) of 5.3x and 4.3x, respectively. Mondi is trading at 5.5x (24% discount) and Sappi is trading at 3.5x (28% discount).
- EUROPULP September data for stocks of wood pulp at European ports: -12% y/y & -5% m/m (YTD: -9% y/y).
- UTIPULP August data: European pulp consumption was up
6% y/y (-8% m/m); Inventories -6% y/y (+5% m/m); and Inventory days -5% y/y (+5 m/m) to 20.
- EUROGRAPH August data for total European shipments: UWF and CWF outperforms all other Graphic Paper grades. CWF -5% y/y & +4% m/m (Europe deliveries -3% y/y & +3% m/m and exports -11% y/y & +6% m/m); CM -21% y/y & +11% m/m; UWF -4% y/y & +2% m/m (Europe deliveries -1% y/y & +3% m/m and exports -16% y/y & -3% m/m).
- AF&PA September 2022 US Printing & Writing stats: Shipments back in the green. Positive read-though for Sappi with CFS purchases up 6% y/y. Imports increased by 37% y/y and exports increased by 3% y/y. Inventories were down 1% m/m.
- AF&PA September 2022 US Packaging Papers stats: Total shipments -10% y/y and down 2% YTD (unbleached bag & sack:
-0.6% YTD).
- AF&PA Q3 22A US Boxboard stats: Positive read-though for Sappi with Solid bleached boxboard (SBB) production up 3% y/y (+2% YTD).
- AF&PA Q3 22A US Containerboard stats: Total containerboard production declined by 8.6% y/y (-1.6% YTD). The linerboard operating rate was 86.0% vs. 91.4% for Medium.
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