Research

Key message: Pulp prices start edging down slowly in Europe. Coated mechanical shows first signs of weakness across Graphic Paper grades. Containerboard prices weaken further, with kraftliner and testliner prices down 3% ytd. OCC manages to just stay above € 70/t and the ICE Dutch TTF Gas Futures now trading at € 61/MWH (-9% w/w).

Key message: The viscose industry chain is set to benefit in 2023 from the lifting of strict COVID prevention and control measures in December. VSF inventory days drop to 20.5, while the average op. rate drops is now 57%. VSF theoretical profit is now almost at break-even. HW DP price averaged $ 963/t in Q4 22A and $ 908/t in December. Spot DP is now $ 880/t.

Key message: Pulp prices stubbornly stable in Europe, with some pressure in the US and China. Graphic prices stable for now, while containerboard prices in the red across the board. ICE Dutch TTF Gas Futures now trading at EUR 67/MWH.

Key message: LT drivers for pulp demand remain intact. Confirmed projects through to 2025 appear moderate in light of c.1.7mt of pulp capacity exiting the market on an annual basis.

Key message: DP price -8% m/m (+2% y/y) in November, while VSF was down 7% m/m (+4% y/y). Spot DP is now $ 910/t. VSF inventory days tick up further to 28.5, while the average op. rate drops to 63%. VSF theoretical profit improves but still in the red at -$ 139/t.

Key message: Graphic Paper prices further in the green in November, while pulp and containerboard were under pressure. OCC was down 26% m/m. October marked the 1st y/y increase in 2022 for European wood pulp stocks. US CFS demand in the green in October, while European CWF demand was firmly in the red in September. November mostly saw further share price gains, led by Lenzing (+35%), while Sappi was down 13% and Mondi was flat.

Key message: Strong print despite box volumes in the red. Strong performance from Southern Europe, while North America and Northern Europe remain challenging. An already bullish FY 23E outlook was upgraded.