- November average price changes: NBSK pulp -2% m/m; +12% y/y; BHKP pulp 0% m/m; +21% y/y; China BHKP net pulp 0% m/m; +57% y/y; China NBSK net pulp -2% m/m; +30% y/y; BCTMP -1% m/m; +33% y/y; US CFS +0% m/m; +20% y/y; LWC +3% m/m; +70% y/y; CWF +4% m/m; +69% y/y; UWF +2% m/m; +53% y/y; Newsprint +7% m/m; +87% y/y; Kraftliner -2% m/m; +9% y/y; Testliner -3% m/m; +11% y/y; OCC -26% m/m; -60% y/y.
- November saw most shares in the green: Top losers included Sappi (-13%); Clearwater Paper (-12%); and Klabin (-9%). Top gainers included Lenzing (+35%); Packaging Corp (+13%) and Mayr-Melnhof (+13%). Mondi was flat m/m, while DS Smith (5%) and Smurfit (+3%) were in the green.
- All peers trading at a discount to their 5-yr average EV/EBITDA, except for Lenzing (+32% premium): Sappi and Billerud are trading at the deepest discount (40% and 32%, respectively) of 2.8x and 5.6x, respectively. Mondi is trading at 5.8x (19% discount). PCA (0%) and IP (-1%) have held up best.
- EUROPULP October data for stocks of wood pulp at European ports: +14 y/y & +16% m/m (YTD: -7% y/y). This marks the 1st time in 2022 that pulp stocks have increased compared to 2021.
- UTIPULP September data: European pulp consumption was down 6% y/y (+5% m/m); Inventories -3% y/y (+2% m/m); and Inventory days -5% y/y (flat m/m) to 20.
- EUROGRAPH September data for total European shipments: All grades in the red, but with Newsprint outperforming all other Graphic Paper grades. CWF -12% y/y & +6% m/m (Europe deliveries -16% y/y & +5% m/m and exports +3% y/y & +7% m/m); CM -13% y/y & +4% m/m; UWF -10% y/y & -2% m/m (Europe deliveries -6% y/y & +2% m/m and exports -30% y/y & -18% m/m).
- AF&PA October 2022 US Printing & Writing stats: Shipments back in the red. Positive read-though for Sappi with CFS purchases up 1% y/y. Imports increased by 62% y/y and exports increased by 16% y/y. Inventories were down 4% m/m.
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