by Sean Ungerer | Aug 18, 2020 | Forestry and Paper
Q2 20A saw adjusted EBITDA increase by 35% y/y (38% q/q): This was driven by the Pulp segment, where sales volumes increased by 25% y/y (-3% q/q) supporting a robust EBITDA margin of 52%, despite bottom of cycle pulp pricing. Unfortunately, bottom line looks messy due...
by Sean Ungerer | Aug 6, 2020 | Forestry and Paper
Dividends resume: As with Smurfit Kappa, MNP resumed dividends in line with its stated dividend policy (2-3x underlying EPS). Last dates to trade cum-dividend are 18 August (JSE) and 19 August (LSE). FY 19A and H1 20A DPS yield 3%.Strong Corrugated performance (36% of...
by Sean Ungerer | Aug 5, 2020 | Forestry and Paper
Q2 20A revenue -35% y/y (-26% q/q) and EBITDA -70% y/y (-61% q/q): Margins collapse to 7.9% as textile fibre revenue declines by 58% y/y(-50% q/q), which shadowed the increase in non-woven fibres revenue of +8% y/y (+12% q/q).Central European wood market is still...
by Sean Ungerer | Aug 4, 2020 | Forestry and Paper
Turnover -33% y/y and EBITDA -49% y/y (-42% q/q): Group ROCE at 7.2% driven by EBITDA margin pressure (-580bps y/y and -400bps q/q) down to 17.8%. This was primarily from their UWF business, where revenue declined by 45% y/y (-41% q/q). UWF volumes were down -37% y/y...
by Sean Ungerer | Jul 30, 2020 | Forestry and Paper
Q3 20A EPS of -USD 0.10/share in line with our estimates; however, EBITDA of USD 27mn was lower than expected (CRe: USD 40mn): Both Europe and North America printed negative EBITDA, weighed down by Graphic Paper despite fixed cost savings in excess of 10%. SA and...
by Sean Ungerer | Jul 29, 2020 | Forestry and Paper
Liquidity over profitability means Q3 20e EBITDA is likely to disappoint: We estimate EPS of at least -USD 0.10/share with EBITDA down at least 66% y/y to USD 40m. We expect a slight uptick in net debt to USD 1,899mn (CapEx and FX), with net debt/EBITDA of 3.8x...
