Research

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SA Banks

by | Apr 26, 2022 |

BA900 – February 2022. Nedbank the most consistent performer, for the wrong reasons though. Annual growth rates in the SARB’s gross loans and advances category improved from 4% in Jan 22 to 4.2% in Feb 22. It’s been around these levels for the past quarter. On our...

Restricted content

by | Apr 7, 2022 | ,

Post Results Wrap and Chart Book Survivorship bias drives market share growth: a theme that is likely to become entrenched, in our opinion, is a clear survivorship bias. Doing business in South Africa is difficult and expensive, and large diversified companies are...

Forestry & Paper: Industry Insights

by | Apr 5, 2022 |

Key message: Cotton and polyester in the red, while VSF and DWP gain further ground. VSF inventory days up to 24.0 & the average op. drops to 69%. VSF theoretical profit further in the red at -USD 159/t (VSF/DWP spread +12% YTD). Spot DWP is now USD 1,000/t.

Forestry & Paper: Suzano 2022 Day (Pulp Insights)

by | Apr 4, 2022 |

Key message: We agree that Suzano’s global hardwood supply/demand outlook appears conservative. Global BHKP demand is expected to grow by a CAGR of 3.4% p.a. (excluding fossil to fibre upside) though to 2026, comprised of 4.7mt from organic growth and new demand of 2mt from fibre to fibre (tissue and ivory board). Over the same period, net capacity growth is set to increase by a CAGR of 3.2% p.a. (excluding higher unplanned downtime as seen during 2017-2021). On this basis, the global hardwood operating rate is expected to improve. Suzano did caution that land and wood shortages are likely to see a limit on new projects that can be announced.