Research
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Afrimat – 1H FY23 Results
Key message: Consistent volume growth remains the key value driver, and diversification reduces iron ore exposure.
Forestry & Paper: Billerud Sack & kraft paper Insights
Key message: Record high EBITDA and record low gearing. Sack kraft order book is “okay and holding up, but length is reducing”. They are starting to see signs of a more gradual change towards normalized market conditions with sentiment changing towards being less favourable in Europe; and stability in North America.
Spear REIT: 1H FY23 results and valuation update
Key message: 1H FY23 performance met expectations and guidance. We are encouraged by Spear’s capital recycling and inorganic growth initiatives, which lift the quality and growth prospects of the portfolio. Solid 1H FY23 performance: DEPS was ZAR41.3c (+6.1% y/y),...
Forestry & Paper: Norske Skog European Graphic Paper & Paper Packaging Insights
Key message: Transformation continues for Norske Skog to become a leading European independent producer of recycled containerboard. Gearing low, with net debt/EBITDA of 0.4x. Valuation remains undemanding.
Forestry & Paper: Textile Fibre Insights
Key message: Cotton and polyester down 3-5%. Cotton is now trading at a 2% discount to VSF. Spot DP is stable at USD 1,020/t. VSF inventory days down to 27.0, while the average op. rate improves further to 66%. VSF theoretical profit improves but still in the red at -USD 229/t.
Forestry & Paper: Industry Insights
Key message: 1st signs of pulp price weakness, while Graphic Paper prints further gains. Containerboard stable, while OCC remains under the pump and ICE Dutch TTF Gas Futures now trading at EUR 142/MWH. Trading updates from the likes of Mondi, UPM and Metsä Group point to a strong earnings season ahead.
Forestry & Paper: Textile Fibre Insights
Cotton and polyester up 3%. Cotton is now trading at a 3% premium to VSF. Spot DP is now USD 1,020/t. VSF inventory days tick up slightly to 28.0, while the average op. rate improves further to 65%. VSF theoretical profit further in the red at -USD 239/t. Lenzing CMD tomorrow.
Forestry & Paper Mondi: Q3 22A Insights
Key message: Strong Q3 22A with EBITDA up 55% y/y to EUR 450mn (-7% q/q). We remain OVERWEIGHT with a potential special dividend of ZAR 62/share (23%) being the key ST catalyst.
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Sirius Real Estate: 1H FY23 trading update
Key message: despite facing an extremely challenging macro backdrop, we think Sirius is holding up in respectable shape operationally. Even under more conservative valuation assumptions and earnings growth forecasts, we think there is clear value in the counter at the...