Research
The content listed is not for investment, financial, accounting or tax advice and is provided for informational purposes only.
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Forestry & Paper: Industry Insights
Key message: Pulp prices continue to edge up in China and Europe. Graphic paper and Containerboard prices stable. Meanwhile, CWF producers, Sappi and Lecta are targeting price hikes of 7-10% from January to address ongoing cost inflation. Gas futures in Europe are currently trading at €47/MWH.
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PPC – 1H FY24 Results
Key message: Solid result in weak market, with increased distributions to shareholders expected going forward.
Forestry & Paper: Industry Insights
Key message: Pulp prices continue to rise in China and Europe and London Pulp Week revealed how well pulp supply has been managed in 2023, but uncertainty remains around demand heading into 2024. Graphic paper prices stable to slightly down. After weeks of stable Containerboard prices, kraftliner and testliner soften 1-2%.
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Raubex – 1H FY24 Results
Key message: Diversity of earnings helps replace high-margin Beitbridge project.
Forestry & Paper: Sappi Q4 23A Insights
Key message: Sappi reported stronger than expected Q4 23A results with EBITDA of $168mn and net debt of $1.085mn (net debt/EBITDA of 1.5x) and maintained a cash dividend of $0.15/share. Q1 24E EBITDA is expected to be lower q-o-q, somewhat impacted by planned shuts (-$40mn).
Forestry & Paper: Sappi Ltd Q4 23E Insights
Dissolving wood pulp segment continues to gain traction, while Packaging & Specialties destocking is taking longer than expected. Graphic Paper is still struggling, with further capacity reductions needed in Europe. Gearing to pick-up in the next 12-24m but covenants (net debt/EBITDA <4x) should not be tested based on our current estimates. We expect Q4 23E EBITDA of $135mn.