Chronux Research
The leading independent research firm in South AfricaChronux Research, founded in 2020, is an independent equity research provider focused on the South African market, with coverage spanning over ten sectors and approximately 30 companies. Within the domestic market, Chronux is particularly well recognised for its Industrials, Construction, Mid-Cap and Forestry & Paper research, where the firm combines deep sector knowledge with disciplined financial modelling and a clear, conviction-led investment framework. The team provides a global perspective on key structural and cyclical themes across the sectors covered. Chronux delivers fundamental equity research incorporating both long and short ideas with analysis driven by in-house financial models, ongoing dialogue with industry decision-makers and regular engagement with management teams. In addition to company-level research, Chronux facilitates high-level interaction with senior executives and provides access to relevant industry experts, supporting clients in forming differentiated investment views. Chronux has also been committed to developing the next generation of analysts and advancing careers within the investment industry, supported by a strong and engaged institutional client base.
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Making It PossibleF&P Textiles Fibre Weekly Update
Logistics now being impacted: Second wave of COVID-19 and the approach of the Chinese Lunar New Year impacting logistics, coupled with fewer vehicles available in Zinjiang. VSF prices jump >10% w/w, paving the way for further DWP price increases: Most customers...
Sasol: Spotlight on earnings – latest profit drivers
Spot earnings for FY21 are now at R19.21/share with FY22 spot earnings at R31.02/share. The significant increase in spot earnings are as a result of higher oil and chemical prices. Refining margins have increased but remain well below average.Asian...
F&P: Weekly Price Update
Pulp set to make further gains: SW was up 3.4% w/w in Europe and HW was up 3.6% w/w in China. Further announcements: Suzano raises BEK pulp to Southeast Asia and Middle East to EUR 600/t (effective immediately). This is on the back of rising shipment costs and limited...
Sasol: Outlook for 2021 – lower risk but still volatile
Earnings higher and lower: We have adjusted our earnings estimates to reflect the stronger rand as well as higher commodity prices. Our HEPS expectation for FY21 has been increased from R7.75 to R13.55 (+75%). We have not adjusted our commodity...
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New Vehicle Sales – December 2020 Key message: 2020 sales were significantly impacted by Covid-19, with passenger sales declining 30.6% for the year. NAAMSA has changed the way they report new vehicle sales by brand. Passenger and Light Commercial Vehicles are now...
F&P: Weekly Textiles Fibre Update
VSF operating rate climbs to 83%: This was on the back of plants in East China resuming operation after planned maintenance. VSF inventory days dropped to 11.5, supported by spinners still taking delivery.VSF theoretical profit remains in the green: With higher VSF...
Forestry & Paper: Weekly Textiles Fibre Update
VSF operating rate drops to 77%: This was on the back of plants in East China cutting rates. Despite this, VSF inventory days dropped to 13, supported by healthy trading for downstream plant demand.VSF profits in the green: With higher VSF prices, the theoretical VSF...
Forestry & Paper Weekly Price Update
Pulp stable across the board: China SW closed the year with a bang, up 19% y/y. With China SW futures running in December, this is likely to provide further support to the physical market heading into 2021. Graphic paper continues to trade sideways: Coated mechanical...
Sasol: Spotlight on earnings – latest profit drivers
Sasol’s spot earnings for FY21 increased to R10.34/share as oil prices breached $51/bbl. Refining margins, petrol cracks in particular remain weak. Net debt in rands continues to fall as the rand strengthens and at current prices net debt to EBITDA could...
Forestry & Paper: Weekly Price Update
Pulp showing marginal gains: Momentum continues in China, with both HW and SW ticking up. Södra Cell is increasing its NBSK price in Europe, effective 1 January. This driven by a recovering market and further tightening expected from multiple maintenance stops. Mixed...