• Spot earnings for FY21 are now at R19.21/share with FY22 spot earnings at R31.02/share.  The significant increase in spot earnings are as a result of higher oil and chemical prices.  Refining margins have increased but remain well below average.
  • Asian ethylene prices have breached $1000/t and are pulling polymer prices higher as well.  US ethylene prices have increased by 69% since the start of December and are at $968/t.  The market is in steep backwardation however with June prices at $484/t.  US polyethylene markets remain active and continue higher (link).

Global chemical news

  • Asian ethylene markets could experience a challenging year with 11 new crackers to come online in 2021.  Derivative capacity is growing at a similar pace (link).  Polyethylene and MEG supply is set to grow by more than 20% in the region with demand growth lagging (link).
  • A continued shortage of shipping containers has seen freight costs for polymers increase threefold to $200-300/t.  These higher freight costs are contributing to higher polymer prices impacting polyethylene, polypropylene and PVC (link).