Chronux Research
The leading independent research firm in South AfricaChronux Research, founded in 2020, is an independent equity research provider focused on the South African market, with coverage spanning over ten sectors and approximately 30 companies. Within the domestic market, Chronux is particularly well recognised for its Industrials, Construction, Mid-Cap and Forestry & Paper research, where the firm combines deep sector knowledge with disciplined financial modelling and a clear, conviction-led investment framework. The team provides a global perspective on key structural and cyclical themes across the sectors covered. Chronux delivers fundamental equity research incorporating both long and short ideas with analysis driven by in-house financial models, ongoing dialogue with industry decision-makers and regular engagement with management teams. In addition to company-level research, Chronux facilitates high-level interaction with senior executives and provides access to relevant industry experts, supporting clients in forming differentiated investment views. Chronux has also been committed to developing the next generation of analysts and advancing careers within the investment industry, supported by a strong and engaged institutional client base.
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Making It PossibleForestry & Paper Weekly Industry Insights
Poland experiencing wave of new corrugated packaging capacity: This is on the back of significant growth in corrugated demand in Poland, with growth rates of 5-6% p.a., implying at least one new corrugator is required to start-up each year. Corrugated demand has...
Sasol: Spotlight on earnings – latest profit drivers
Spot earnings were flat this week as a higher oil price offset the stronger rand, lower refining margins and lower chemical prices. FY22 spot are at R52.30/share.Around 17% of the upside in spot earnings in FY22 arise from higher chemical prices. Chemical prices...
Forestry & Paper: Weekly Price Update
Pulp prices largely stable across the board: Arauco announced flat June market pulp and DWP prices in China. The June softwood pulp future is currently USD 935/t vs. July at USD 914/t. Global pulp producer inventories declined by 2 days to 36 days-of-supply in March,...
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Improving Returns in a Growing Market Key message: Poor balance sheet management has long bedevilled returns. However, the focus on improving returns is now evident in the working capital management. Through fixing (Equipment) and disposals (Automotive), Barloworld...
Forestry & Paper: SCA Q1 21A Insights
Europe’s largest independent kraftliner producer saw Q1 21A EBITDA increase by 32% y/y, boosting ROCE to 16%: The Group EBITDA margin expanded to 32.6%, driven by high demand, improved pricing across the board and SCA exiting from the graphic paper markets, with the...
Forestry & Paper Textiles Fibre Weekly Update
Key YTD moves: Polyester +14%; HW DWP +51%; China-origin DWP +43%; medium-grade VSF +20% and high-end VSF +25%. In contrast, Lyocell is only up 4%. VSF prices stable this week but imported forward cargoes traded around 12,000 yuan/t: The VSF operating rate climbed to...
Calgro M3 – FY21 Results
Key message: A significant recovery in 2H as the business stabilises and development activities resume. A strong pipeline of units under construction supports revenue growth into FY22. Calgro released FY21 results. The 2H FY21 result showed a significant recovery over...
Afrimat – Moving into Manganese
Key message: Manganese has been on the cards for some time – Afrimat has made it move. High iron ore prices will help fund the development of this greenfield deposit. Afrimat announced the acquisition of the Gravenhage manganese mining right in the Northern Cape (50km...
Sasol: Spotlight on earnings – latest profit drivers
FY22 spot earnings declined by 8% to R52.77/share this week as oil prices and refining margins declined. Both petrol and diesel crack spreads declined with petrol at $6.76/bbl and diesel at $4.47/bbl.Around 22% of the upside in spot earnings in FY22 arise from...
Forestry & Paper Weekly Price Update
North America pulp registers further increase this week but rally likely to moderate now: US spot markets have eased back to regular pulp allocations or 10% below that. In China, imported pulp appears to be at a standstill now, with suppliers keeping prices stable or...