• Spot earnings were flat this week as a higher oil price offset the stronger rand, lower refining margins and lower chemical prices.  FY22 spot are at R52.30/share.
  • Around 17% of the upside in spot earnings in FY22 arise from higher chemical prices. Chemical prices continue to fall in Asia and polyethylene prices are lower for the fourth week.  US LDPE prices were also slightly lower but LLDPE prices were flat.  The US integrated polyethylene margin declined by 2% in recent weeks.

Global chemical news

  • U.S. production of major plastic resins increased by of 15% (MoM) in April, and by 14.5% compared to the same month in 2020 as plants come back online after the arctic storm (link).
  • US ethane production is set to increase by 40% in 2022 as three new crackers start operation (link).  This could see ethane transported from the North East to the Gulf of Mexico which could see ethane prices increase by 10-15cpg.