• FY22 spot earnings declined by 8% to R52.77/share this week as oil prices and refining margins declined.  Both petrol and diesel crack spreads declined with petrol at $6.76/bbl and diesel at $4.47/bbl.
  • Around 22% of the upside in spot earnings in FY22 arise from higher chemical prices.  Monomer prices were slightly higher in Asia, but polymer prices continue their decline of the previous week.  US ethylene prices continue to fall, declining by 18% from last week.  Ethylene prices are now 48% below the level achieved in April.  Ethane is edging higher.  Polyethylene prices remain flat, however.

Global chemical news

  • Polyolefin markets may have reached a turning point after a strong 1Q but the outlook for 2Q remains positive and demand growth still looks good said Borealis.  Borealis is also in the process of starting a new project in Bayport, TX (link).
  • The hurricane season has begun and two disturbances in the Atlantic ocean (link), one with >80% probability to become a tropical cyclone.  CSU’s centre or tropical weather and climate research expects higher than average hurricane activity in 2021 (link).