by Sean Ungerer | Nov 9, 2022 | Forestry and Paper
Q4 22E results on Thursday 10 November, key numbers to look out for: We expect EBITDA to improve by 203% y/y (+18% q/q) to a quarterly record of USD 439mn (Consensus: USD 392mn) and EPS of USD 0.47/share (Consensus: USD 0.41/share). Europe likely to moderate q/q;...
by Sean Ungerer | Nov 4, 2022 | Forestry and Paper
October average price changes: NBSK pulp -1% m/m; +11% y/y; BHKP pulp flat m/m; +21% y/y; China BHKP net pulp flat m/m; +47% y/y; China NBSK net pulp -1% m/m; +19% y/y; BCTMP -6% m/m; +33% y/y; LWC +3% m/m; +73% y/y; CWF +3% m/m; +74% y/y; UWF +2% m/m; +54% y/y;...
by Sean Ungerer | Nov 2, 2022 | Forestry and Paper
Smurfit Kappa released a Q3 22A trading update this morning: Q3 22A revenue increased by 28% y/y (-1% q/q), while EBITDA increased by 31% y/y but down 10% q/q to EUR 593mn. Accordingly, the Q3 22A EBITDA margin was 17.8% (+35bps y/y and -188bps q/q). Corrugated growth...
by Sean Ungerer | Oct 31, 2022 | Forestry and Paper
Key w/w moves: Cotton -3%; ICE cotton contract -9%; Polyester -2%; HW DWP 0%; China-origin 0%, medium-grade VSF -3%; and high-end VSF -4% and Lyocell 0%. Cotton is now trading at a 2% discount to VSF (2021 average premium: 30%) and a 69% premium to polyester (2021...
by Sean Ungerer | Oct 28, 2022 | Forestry and Paper
Strong Q3 22A with record underlying EBITDA, despite unusually heavy maintenance: Strong organic sales growth of 20% y/y (actual +82% y/y &+4% q/q), supporting record quarterly EBITDA (+97% y/y & -3% q/q), with an EBITDA margin of 18.6%. Leverage at an...
by Sean Ungerer | Oct 25, 2022 | Forestry and Paper
Q3 performance was strong but relative to Q2, most metrics were weaker: Revenue +37% y/y (-8% q/q); EBITDA +355% y/y (-44% q/q); EBITDA margin +977bps y/y (-898bps q/q) to 14.0%. Net debt/EBITDA improved to 0.4x (Q3 21A: 2.7x & Q2 22A: 0.5x). Cost of materials...
