• Further pressure on paper pulp prices: NOREXECO pulp futures for CY 24E imply a 16-28% decline in Europe, and a decline of 8-16% in China.
  • Graphic Paper prices hold steady, except for CM: After factoring in a 30% discount to list pulp prices, the CWF/HW spread was up 4% w/w to €355/t, while the UWF/HW spread was up 3% w/w to € 465/t.
  • Containerboard prices weaken further (kraftliner -1% & testliner -3%): The kraftliner/testliner spread increased by 4% w/w to €175/t, while the testliner/OCC spread decreased by 3% to €574/t. OCC appears to have found a floor at €69/t.
  • VSF prices in the green this week: The VSF op. rate improved this week to 55% (from 59%) as VSF plants located in Xinjiang, Shandong and Hebei raised run rates since the Spring Festival. VSF inventory days increased to 32.0 (from 21.0). The theoretical VSF margin for Chinese producers improved but still in the red at -$19/t.
  • Hardwood DP prices bounce back: The spot hardwood price is now $900/t. The DP/pulp spread is currently $98/t (this level generally supports preference for paper pulp production over DP production). The domestic DP price increased just under 1% w/w to ¥7,100/t ($1,050/t, a $160/t premium to imports).

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