• Pulp prices steady but hardwood prices set to increase in Asia: First BEK price increase announced in months. The world’s largest pulp producer, Suzano will increase BEK pulp in Asia (incl. China) by USD 20/t, effective immediately. NOREXECO pulp futures for Q1 21E imply a 10-14% decline in Europe, while prices in China are now expected to increase by 3%. Pulp prices in Europe increased by 1% w/w (flat in USD though). In Europe, stocks of wood pulp at ports declined by 11% m/m (-22% y/y) to 1.15mt in October. In Brazil, LD Celulose’s new DP mill us c.81% complete and the 500ktpa (10% upside from debottlenecking) mill is expected to reach full production by Q1 23E, with a cash cost of USD 300/t delivered to China. Dexco see a positive price outlook for DWP in 2022.
  • Graphic paper continues to make further gains: YTD, CWF and UWF prices are now up 21% and 13%, respectively. After factoring in a 30% discount to list pulp prices, the CWF/HW spread improves to EUR 53/t (UWF margin EUR 197/t). In Asia, APP has announced a 10% price increase for all fine paper grades, with immediate effect. In the US, AF&PA released October Printing-Writing stats. UFS shipments increased by 4% y/y, while imports were up 15% y/y and exports declined by 9%. CFS purchases declined by 6% y/y, while imports were up 56% y/y (July: +32%; August: +46%; September: +50%).  
  • Containerboard takes a breather this week, with prices flat w/w: OCC prices have shown further stability in the past few weeks as collection volumes have improved; rising inventories on both sides of the market and exports have been lower.
  • Further folding boxboard price increases announced (+ for Sappi): Klabin has announced a price increased for FBB of USD 100/t in Brazil and USD 150/t in export markets, effective 1 January 2022.

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