August 2021
Key message: July and August imports have been relatively high given the looting and port issues over the period. Government localisation policies will have minimal impact on imports.
- August 2021 saw imports of 75 944 tons, after 79 516 tons were imported in July (high considering the looting and port issues for that month). The 12-month rolling annual import level is 1.257m tons, up 52% on the previous 12 months.
- The banning of imported cement from government-funded projects will not reduce imports significantly, in our opinion, as government projects are a small customer of imported cement (the major customer is independent hardware stores selling to the retail market). The ruling will also only impact coastal areas KZN, and to a much lesser extent E and W Cape (approx. 35% of SA’s cement demand). We believe the impact will be less than a 1% swing in cement sales moving to the local producers.
- The more significant ruling (still awaited) would be ITAC tariffs on imported cement and clinker. This would likely result in an immediate 5% at least swing in market share back to the local producers.