- China pulp prices fall further: NOREXECO pulp futures for CY Q4 21E imply a 6-7% decline in Europe vs. a 2% decline in China.
- European CWF margins remain in the red, despite prices up 1.4% w/w: After factoring in a 30% discount to list pulp prices, the CWF/HW spread remains in the red at -EUR 10/t (UWF margin +EUR 173/t). In North America, the three largest UFS producers are out with price increases (6-9%) from 1 November. This would be the third industry-wide price increase in 2021 (could now be up USD 200/t). According to RISI, Mondi is planning to raise its UFS prices again in North America by EUR 100/t for all products delivered from its Central European mills Neusiedler in Austria and SCP in Slovakia, effective 1 November.
- Containerboard in the green, with kraftliner and testliner up 2.5% w/w: Burgo is set to increase all testliner grades by 15% from November on the back of rising input costs. Additionally, Hamburger Containerboard is set to increase all testliner prices by EUR 60/t. In the US, August kraft linerboard exports were down 24% YTD (China:
-50% and Europe: -40%). In Europe, CEPI reported strong August containerboard deliveries to Europe, with shipments up 12% y/y to 2.5 mt (YTD shipments are up 7.4% to 20.7mt). - Positive read-through for Mondi’s Flexible Packaging business as North America’s ten largest kraft paper producers are out with further price increases: WestRock (#1), Premium 1 Paper (#2) and GP (#3) have announced a USD 60-70/t increase for unbleached and bleached grades.
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