- Annual growth rates in the SARB’s gross loans and advances category has accelerated from 1.2% in July to 1.9% in August and in value terms is now ahead of the prior peak seen in March 2020. Retail loan growth is faring far better than corporate (5.9% vs -3.3%) and has shown accelerating growth compared to corporates decline. On our methodology, industry advances growth was 1.2% YoY, 1.7% YTD and 0.5% MoM. Loan growth remains at depressed levels and continues to track below deposit growth, currently 2.8% YoY.
- Corporate overdrafts (caution, it is volatile) is currently the strongest growing category (+13.1% YoY), followed by residential mortgages (+7.8%), instalment sales (+5%) and credit cards (+4.8%). Foreign currency loans have declined by 19% YoY and corporate loans by 2.1%.
- Absa is achieving the best YoY advances growth with 4.5% (with the best MoM growth), followed closely by Standard Bank with 4.4% and Investec at 2.1%. FirstRand and Nedbank both have contracting books YoY (-1.8% and -1.9% respectively) with the weakest MoM growth at 0.2%.
- Absa and Standard Bank are dominating the market share gains over the past 12 months. Standard Bank increased its total share of advances by 0.8% and Absa 0.7%. FirstRand and Nedbank have both seen 0.6% declines. Absa is gaining the most in commercial mortgages (+1.8%), instalment sales (+1.4%), corporate overdrafts and loans (6.4%) and foreign currency loans (+2%). Standard Bank has added 1.1% to its share of residential mortgages.
- On a positive note, FirstRand has reversed its negative YoY growth trends in most lending categories over the past few months, but clearly remains more risk averse as evidenced by a 6.7% YoY contraction in personal loans and ongoing market share losses across many categories. Its deposit growth is far outstripping advances growth highlighting its focus on the liability side of its balance sheet.
- Capitec continues to gain market share in credit cards (+8.3% YoY), personal loans (+3% YoY) and deposits (+28% YoY). African Bank’s personal loan book has contracted further (-8% YoY).
- FirstRand is dominating in YoY total deposit growth (+6.3%) followed by Absa (+2.4%). Nedbank and Standard Bank have seen negative growth in deposits YoY. Retail deposit growth is well ahead of wholesale growth industry wide, apart from FirstRand.
- Of the big four banks Nedbank and Standard Bank are seeing provisions growing significantly faster than advances, particularly Standard Bank where provisions have risen 37% compared to advances of 4.4% YoY. Industry impaired advances as a % of loans improved marginally to 4.9%, considerably higher than the 4% in January 2020.
- Discovery Bank achieved 38% YoY growth in deposits (R9.4bn) and 6% in credit cards (R3.8bn), the latter not that impressive given its low base and industry growth of 4.8%. TymeBank’s deposits grew 79% to R2.5bn with negligible lending on its balance sheet.
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