• We have recently upgraded our estimates for Sasol to reflect higher oil prices (link).  Prices continue to move higher however and spot earnings increased forFY21 increased by 12% to R24.90 this week.  Spot earnings for FY22 now exceed R40/share.
  • Polymer prices remained flat across Asia and the US but monomer prices increased in Asia as well as the US where ethylene prices were 19% higher.  The cold weather in the US impacted production negatively and ethane prices declined by 10% and integrated margins remain at multiyear highs.

Global chemical news

  • IHS reports that the global dynamic for planned shutdowns of crackers 2021 the ethylene industry could see constraints in 2021 but given the excess capacity in the market but given the excess capacity in the market these constraints should not be prolonged.  The excess supply should only become apparent in 2H (link).
  • ExxonMobil slashed capital expenditures for 2021 but it has pushed forward its ethane cracker, polyethylene and mono-ethylene glycol chemical complex in Texas set to be ready before the end of the year, ahead of the 2022 originally scheduled date (link).