Chronux Research
The leading independent research firm in South AfricaChronux Research, founded in 2020, is an independent equity research provider focused on the South African market, with coverage spanning over ten sectors and approximately 30 companies. Within the domestic market, Chronux is particularly well recognised for its Industrials, Construction, Mid-Cap and Forestry & Paper research, where the firm combines deep sector knowledge with disciplined financial modelling and a clear, conviction-led investment framework. The team provides a global perspective on key structural and cyclical themes across the sectors covered. Chronux delivers fundamental equity research incorporating both long and short ideas with analysis driven by in-house financial models, ongoing dialogue with industry decision-makers and regular engagement with management teams. In addition to company-level research, Chronux facilitates high-level interaction with senior executives and provides access to relevant industry experts, supporting clients in forming differentiated investment views. Chronux has also been committed to developing the next generation of analysts and advancing careers within the investment industry, supported by a strong and engaged institutional client base.
Our Corporate Sponsored Coverage
Making It PossibleRestricted content
Key message: The foodservice market is resilient – and will bounce back quickly after lockdowns. Bidcorp released 1H FY21 results, with results largely in line with the guidance provided over the period. It is clear now that the restaurant trade is able to bounce back...
Sasol: Spotlight on earnings – latest profit drivers
We have recently upgraded our estimates for Sasol to reflect higher oil prices (link). Prices continue to move higher however and spot earnings increased forFY21 increased by 12% to R24.90 this week. Spot earnings for FY22 now exceed R40/share.Polymer...
Mondi FY 20A Insights
FY 20A underlying EBITDA down 18% y/y to EUR 1,353mn: Corrugated and Flexible Packaging performed well despite a low pricing environment. UFP had a tough year as expected, while Engineered Materials remains a drag on Group ROCE. Impact on EBITDA from planned shuts was...
Forestry & Paper Weekly Price Update
Slow start for pulp as China returns from CNY: With the futures prices and trading volumes remaining high after the CNY, the Illim Group has announced a USD 90/t increase for softwood (to USD 880/t) and USD 120/t for hardwood (to USD 700/t). Further hikes on the cards...
Sasol: Investment case review – corner turned?
Earnings upgrades, not as large as they look: We raise our HEPS estimate from R13.55/share to R30.20 to include the reversal of currency and hedge related losses. We increase our core HEPS from R15.73 to R19.72. Our estimate for HEPS for FY22...
F&P: Textiles Fibre Weekly Update
Key moves since the Chinese New Year (CNY): Cotton stable, while Polyester and high-end VSF leads fibre gains (both up 13%). Hardwood DWP up 11% vs. China-origin up 10%. VSF prints further gains: Trading mood for VSF remains strong following the CNY. VSF operating...
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Key message: A very strong 2H FY20 is evident in the indicated earnings guidance. A switch from low margin exports to local market paper sales appears to be the main driver. Mpact released a Trading Update for FY20. HEPS is expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.3%....
Forestry & Paper Weekly Price Update
Further pulp momentum this week, with the US playing some catch-up: Domtar (1.9mtpa of market pulp capacity in the US & Canada) has implemented its third price increase, cumulatively USD 280/t since December last year.Non-integrated Graphic Paper producers further...
Calgro M3 – Initiation
Key message: A shift back to a simple development model and debt maturity restructuring has left Calgro well positioned to cash in on the development pipeline. The discount to realisable NAV is substantial. Calgro M3 is a developer of integrated residential...
Sasol: Spotlight on earnings – latest profit drivers
Spot earnings continue to increase as this week oil prices and refining margins increased while the rand remained relatively flat. FY21E spot earnings are at R22.15/share (ex reversal of currency losses) with FY22E spot earnings at R39.60/share.LLDPE and...