Chronux Research
The leading independent research firm in South AfricaChronux Research, founded in 2020, is an independent equity research provider focused on the South African market, with coverage spanning over ten sectors and approximately 30 companies. Within the domestic market, Chronux is particularly well recognised for its Industrials, Construction, Mid-Cap and Forestry & Paper research, where the firm combines deep sector knowledge with disciplined financial modelling and a clear, conviction-led investment framework. The team provides a global perspective on key structural and cyclical themes across the sectors covered. Chronux delivers fundamental equity research incorporating both long and short ideas with analysis driven by in-house financial models, ongoing dialogue with industry decision-makers and regular engagement with management teams. In addition to company-level research, Chronux facilitates high-level interaction with senior executives and provides access to relevant industry experts, supporting clients in forming differentiated investment views. Chronux has also been committed to developing the next generation of analysts and advancing careers within the investment industry, supported by a strong and engaged institutional client base.
Our Corporate Sponsored Coverage
Making It PossibleForestry & Paper: Smurfit Kappa H1 21A Packaging Insights
Strong H1 21A results across all metrics: Revenue +11% y/y (+8% h/h); EBITDA +6% y/y (+1% h/h), with a robust EBITDA margin of 16.7%. Interim DPS up 5% y/y and working capital management remains robust at 8.1% of sales. Net debt/EBITDA of 1.6x stable (targeted range...
Restricted content
We initiate on Italtile with an Overweight recommendation and a Target Price of R20.50.Italtile is a franchisor, manufacturer and retailer of tiles, sanitaryware, bathware and other related home-finishing products.Key businesses include:Retail (127 stores): Retailer...
Restricted content
We initiate on Hudaco with an Overweight recommendation and a Target Price of R166.Hudaco imports and distributes high-quality branded automotive aftermarket, industrial and electronic consumable products mainly in the southern African region.Hudaco businesses serve...
Forestry & Paper: Textiles Fibre Update
Key YTD moves: Polyester +23%; HW DWP +38%; China-origin DWP +26%; medium-grade VSF +12% and high-end VSF +15%. In contrast, Lyocell is down 5%. VSF prices in the green again this week: The VSF operating rate was stable at 74%, while VSF inventory days dropped again...
Forestry & Paper: Nordic Paper Kraft Paper Insights
Nordic Paper benefitted from a strong Q2 21A: Fundamentals for specialty paper products remains strong, providing underpin for volume growth of 7% y/y and EBITDA margin expansion to 20.3%. ROCE remains robust at 18.4% (Q2 20A: 33.7%) and gearing is in check,...
Cashbuild – Earnings Update
Key message: We update our earnings to remove the impact of the TBC deal (turned down by Competition Commission) and recent trading conditions, including the impact of the recent unrest on Cashbuild and the 4Q Operational Update. On 28 May 2021, the Competition...
Forestry & Paper: Industry Price Update
China pulp prices further in the red this week: China import pulp prices fell further this week (SW: -1% and HW: -8%). The September BSK future (SHFE) settled at USD 843/t last week. NOREXECO pulp futures remain unchanged and for the CY Q4 20E contract imply a 12-13%...
Forestry & Paper: BillerudKorsnäs Paper Packaging Insights
Q2 21A profitability continued to strengthen: Revenue increased by 2% y/y (-4% q/q) on the back of strong cartonboard, sack and kraft paper demand. This supported adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 100bps y/y to 13.6% but down 181bps q/q due planned and unplanned...
Restricted content
Key message: We update our Bidvest forecast post the unrest in South Africa which is likely to impact the Freight division in 1H FY22. We update our Bidvest forecast post the unrest in South Africa which is likely to impact the Freight division in 1H FY22. The Port of...
Forestry & Paper: Textile Fibres Update
Key YTD moves: Polyester +20%; HW DWP +38%; China-origin DWP +29%; medium-grade VSF +11% and high-end VSF +15%. In contrast, Lyocell is down 5%. VSF prices in the green again this week: Sateri and Tangshan Sanyou are seeing strong interest for medium-grade VSF around...