Chronux Research
The leading independent research firm in South AfricaChronux Research, founded in 2020, is an independent equity research provider focused on the South African market, with coverage spanning over ten sectors and approximately 30 companies. Within the domestic market, Chronux is particularly well recognised for its Industrials, Construction, Mid-Cap and Forestry & Paper research, where the firm combines deep sector knowledge with disciplined financial modelling and a clear, conviction-led investment framework. The team provides a global perspective on key structural and cyclical themes across the sectors covered. Chronux delivers fundamental equity research incorporating both long and short ideas with analysis driven by in-house financial models, ongoing dialogue with industry decision-makers and regular engagement with management teams. In addition to company-level research, Chronux facilitates high-level interaction with senior executives and provides access to relevant industry experts, supporting clients in forming differentiated investment views. Chronux has also been committed to developing the next generation of analysts and advancing careers within the investment industry, supported by a strong and engaged institutional client base.
Our Corporate Sponsored Coverage
Making It PossibleNavigator Q2 20A: UWF and Pulp Insights
Turnover -33% y/y and EBITDA -49% y/y (-42% q/q): Group ROCE at 7.2% driven by EBITDA margin pressure (-580bps y/y and -400bps q/q) down to 17.8%. This was primarily from their UWF business, where revenue declined by 45% y/y (-41% q/q). UWF volumes were down -37% y/y...
Sasol: Sale of Air Separation Units – value preserved?
Another disposal Sasol announced the potential sale of 16 air separation units on the Synfuels site to Air Liquide for a possible consideration of R8.5bn. Sasol is set to purchase oxygen in future.Largest global oxygen producer: Sasol consumes...
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Key message: Vehicle sales stabilise at the same level as June – this may be the new normal level for the remainder of the year. The used car market is gaining relative to new as rental fleets dump cars into the market. NAAMSA released July 2020 new vehicle sales....
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Key message: Hygiene services peer company Rentokil Initial saw a decline in HORECA and office washroom service activity due to lockdowns, but this was more than made up by demand for hygiene products. Air care is a growth sector in Hygiene as a result of Covid-19....
Sasol: Spotlight on earnings – latest profit drivers
Sasol’s spot earnings declined as oil prices and refining margins in particular were lower this week. Spot earnings for FY21 is at R5.01/share. Singaporean petrol spreads weakened amid new COVID-19 cases as well as floods in India and China (link)..Polymer prices...
Sappi Q3 20A Key Thoughts
Q3 20A EPS of -USD 0.10/share in line with our estimates; however, EBITDA of USD 27mn was lower than expected (CRe: USD 40mn): Both Europe and North America printed negative EBITDA, weighed down by Graphic Paper despite fixed cost savings in excess of 10%. SA and...
Raubex – Trading Update for 1H FY21
Key message: Lockdown resulted in approx. R200m in standing costs, but Raubex has emerged with the balance sheet in a better position that at the end of Feb 2020. The recently released SIPS seem to favour roads projects to be the first to market. Raubex released a...
Sappi Ltd: Q3 20e Insights
Liquidity over profitability means Q3 20e EBITDA is likely to disappoint: We estimate EPS of at least -USD 0.10/share with EBITDA down at least 66% y/y to USD 40m. We expect a slight uptick in net debt to USD 1,899mn (CapEx and FX), with net debt/EBITDA of 3.8x...
Sasol: Spotlight on earnings – latest profit drivers
Sasol’s spot earnings continue to rise this week as the oil prices moved higher. Crack spreads continue to fall however. Spot earnings for FY21 are at R9.00/share and at spot prices the LCCP earns a loss of R4.63/share.Polymer prices continue to advance in...
Sasol: 4Q production revealed– estimates unchanged
Volumes generally lower: Sasol’s volumes in 4Q and the full year were generally lower due to COVID-19 lockdowns in several countries.Sasol Mining: Production and internal sales volumes in FY20 in the division were unchanged from last year despite the...