Chronux Research
The leading independent research firm in South AfricaChronux Research, founded in 2020, is an independent equity research provider focused on the South African market, with coverage spanning over ten sectors and approximately 30 companies. Within the domestic market, Chronux is particularly well recognised for its Industrials, Construction, Mid-Cap and Forestry & Paper research, where the firm combines deep sector knowledge with disciplined financial modelling and a clear, conviction-led investment framework. The team provides a global perspective on key structural and cyclical themes across the sectors covered. Chronux delivers fundamental equity research incorporating both long and short ideas with analysis driven by in-house financial models, ongoing dialogue with industry decision-makers and regular engagement with management teams. In addition to company-level research, Chronux facilitates high-level interaction with senior executives and provides access to relevant industry experts, supporting clients in forming differentiated investment views. Chronux has also been committed to developing the next generation of analysts and advancing careers within the investment industry, supported by a strong and engaged institutional client base.
Our Corporate Sponsored Coverage
Making It PossibleSasol: Spotlight on earnings – latest profit drivers
FY21E Spot earnings increased by 22% to R7.39/share this week as oil prices increased by 8.7% and refining margins by 7.9%. At spot prices our estimate of net debt declined to R111bn assisted by the stronger rand. Excluding lease liabilities and long-term...
Sasol: Spotlight on earnings – latest profit drivers
Spot earnings dropped back this week as oil prices and refining margins declined with a slightly stronger rand. FY21 spot earnings are now at R5.78/share.Chemical prices in Asia were generally higher this week with ethylene prices increasing by almost 13% due to...
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Winter is Coming Key message: New lockdowns in UK and Europe will impact the remainder of FY21. Bidcorp, however, has experience in dealing with lockdowns now – but ST margins will still be under pressure. The restaurant trade has proved to be resilient and...
WBHO – FY20 Results
Bitter Pill Swallowed Key message: A significant loss in Australia clouds a reasonable performance in a weak market. WBHO released FY20 results. Revenue increased by 6% (down 12% in South Africa, up 14% in Australia and UK), but an operating loss of R541m was reported...
Forestry & Paper Weekly Insights
North American coated free sheet (CFS) producers, including Sappi, target price increases of 2-5%: In October, CFS No 3 60lb rolls were down 4% y/y and down 2% since February. At the end of October, Verso (2nd largest CFS producer: 800ktpa or 34% of market capacity)...
Sasol: Spotlight on earnings – latest profit drivers
Spot earnings continue to increase and are 22% below our estimate for FY21 at R6.06/share. The recent increase in oil prices is a key driver of higher earnings. Refining margins were stable but remain well below mid cycle levels. The stronger rand...
PPC – Trading Update
Booming Cement Sales Support Lender Discussions Key message: Strong cement sales in all regions are a welcome respite for PPC – and will help in the capital restructuring. PPC released a Trading Statement to October 2020.South Africa & Botswana: Cement sales...
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Key message: A strong recovery from 4Q FY20, 1QFY21 looks to have grown revenue relative to 1Q FY20 but margins have come under pressure. Possible lockdowns in Europe could impact the rest of the year. Imperial Logistics provided a Trading Update for the three months...
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Surprisingly Strong Key message: Rental car de-fleeting must be generating good profits in the used car market. Short-term liquidity issues look to have been averted. Motus released a Trading Update for the 4 months to October 2020.The South African new vehicle market...
Sasol: Ethane markets tighter in Texas– higher prices?
NGL production in the US: US natural gas liquids (NGL) and ethane production continue to grow despite significantly lower rig counts. The countrywide ethane rejection is at 640kbpd or 23% of total.Gulf Coast consumption: While there is sufficient ethane for six...