Chronux Research
The leading independent research firm in South AfricaChronux Research, founded in 2020, is an independent equity research provider focused on the South African market, with coverage spanning over ten sectors and approximately 30 companies. Within the domestic market, Chronux is particularly well recognised for its Industrials, Construction, Mid-Cap and Forestry & Paper research, where the firm combines deep sector knowledge with disciplined financial modelling and a clear, conviction-led investment framework. The team provides a global perspective on key structural and cyclical themes across the sectors covered. Chronux delivers fundamental equity research incorporating both long and short ideas with analysis driven by in-house financial models, ongoing dialogue with industry decision-makers and regular engagement with management teams. In addition to company-level research, Chronux facilitates high-level interaction with senior executives and provides access to relevant industry experts, supporting clients in forming differentiated investment views. Chronux has also been committed to developing the next generation of analysts and advancing careers within the investment industry, supported by a strong and engaged institutional client base.
Our Corporate Sponsored Coverage
Making It PossibleForestry & Paper: Textiles Fibre Weekly Update
Key YTD moves: Polyester +15%; HW DWP +51%; China-origin DWP +43%; medium-grade VSF +20% and high-end VSF +25%. In contrast, Lyocell is only up 4%. Slight pressure on medium-grade VSF, while high-end drops 5% w/w: This brings the high/medium spread in line with the...
Forestry & Paper Weekly Industry Insights
Suzano announced a new 2.3mtpa BEK project in Brazil and is expected to start-up in Q1 24e: The “Cerrado Project” is expected to cost R$ 14.7bn or USD 2.8bn (implying CapEx/t of USD 1,218) between 2021 and 2024 in Ribas do Rio Pardo, the Mato Grosso do Sul state...
Sasol: Spotlight on earnings – latest profit drivers
As FY21 draws to a close we have rolled forward our spot earnings estimates by a year (link). We estimate spot earnings for FY22 at R57.30, flat on spot earnings last week. Oil prices were higher, but this was offset by the stronger rand. Refining...
Sasol: The new equation does not change the answer
Higher near-term earnings: We raise our FY21 headline earnings per share estimate for Sasol from R30.20 to R36.65/share (+21%) and we increase our FY22 estimate from R32.65 to R36.10 (+11%). Closing rates of currencies and oil could still impact these...
Forestry & Paper Weekly Price Update
Pulp set to gain further ground in May: Further pressure on supply (logistic problems and un/planned downtime), the ongoing gap between prices in Europe and China and robust domestic demand are driving pulp prices higher. China BSK pulp futures bounced back after the...
Raubex- FY21Results
Margin uplift imminent Key message: Raubex has a full order book in the Roads division – and will now selectively bid at higher margins. Capacity looks to be filling up for large roads/civil projects – pricing power is moving back to the remaining large contractors....
Forestry & Paper Textiles Fibre Weekly Update
Key YTD moves: Polyester +18%; HW DWP +51%; China-origin DWP +43%; medium-grade VSF +22% and high-end VSF +32%. In contrast, Lyocell is only up 7%. VSF prices appear to have stabilized at RMB 14-15k/t: Prices have been stable but there has been some discounting this...
Sasol: Spotlight on earnings – latest profit drivers
Sasol’s spot earnings continue to move higher and spot headline earnings for FY22 is at R57.64/share. Oil prices and refining margins increased in the week. Petrol cracks have increased to more than $11/bbl, but diesel remains weak at $6/bbl.Around 36% of...
Forestry & Paper: Mondi Q1 21A Insights
Sequential underlying EBITDA improving but still down y/y: EBITDA increased by 14% q/q to EUR 353mn. However, EBITDA declined by 8% y/y. This appears to be a function of MNP’s UFP segment, cost headwinds and unfavourable FX (weaker USD). In contrast, we note that...
Forestry & Paper: Sappi Q2 21A Insights
Q2 21A snapshot: EBITDA of USD 112mn was 4% lighter than our estimate, with EBITDA down 2% y/y but up 10% q/q. EPS came in at negative USD 0.01/share (CRe: USD 0/share).Europe (25% of EBITDA) EBIT now in the red: Sales were slightly weaker than what we expected. We...