Chronux Research
The leading independent research firm in South AfricaChronux Research, founded in 2020, is an independent equity research provider focused on the South African market, with coverage spanning over ten sectors and approximately 30 companies. Within the domestic market, Chronux is particularly well recognised for its Industrials, Construction, Mid-Cap and Forestry & Paper research, where the firm combines deep sector knowledge with disciplined financial modelling and a clear, conviction-led investment framework. The team provides a global perspective on key structural and cyclical themes across the sectors covered. Chronux delivers fundamental equity research incorporating both long and short ideas with analysis driven by in-house financial models, ongoing dialogue with industry decision-makers and regular engagement with management teams. In addition to company-level research, Chronux facilitates high-level interaction with senior executives and provides access to relevant industry experts, supporting clients in forming differentiated investment views. Chronux has also been committed to developing the next generation of analysts and advancing careers within the investment industry, supported by a strong and engaged institutional client base.
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New Vehicle Sales – January 2022 Key message: January 2022 passenger car sales grew by 26.6% YoY (+3.3% on January 2020). Suzuki has overtaken Hyundai in market share for the first time (and Haval is consistently outselling Kia). NAAMSA released January 2022 new...
Lewis Group – 3Q trading update
Key message: Revenue growth in line with FY22E forecasts. Debtor costs improve considerably. No changes to HEPS outlook. Lewis announced a strong trading update for the nine months to December 2021 – merchandise sales grew by 12.7% compared to the same period the...
Forestry & Paper: Industry Insights
Pulp prices extend gains in China: Small and medium-size mills across China have begun to take downtime due to a shortage of pulp, and the stoppage is expected to continue until late February after the long Lunar New Year vacation. They are reluctant to buy market...
Forestry & Paper: Sappi Q1 22E Insights
Q1 22E results on Wednesday 9 February, key numbers to look out for: Q1 to mark the sixth quarter of sequential EBITDA improvement to USD 192mn (+96% y/y and +9% q/q) and EPS of USD 0.14/share. Europe set to enter sweet spot this year (pricing on the rise, demand...
Forestry & Paper: Textiles Fibre Update
Key w/w moves: Cotton +1%; Polyester +1%; and HW DWP, China-origin DWP, medium-grade VSF, high-end VSF and Lyocell all flat w/w. Cotton’s premium to VSF is currently 72% (2021 average: 30%) and a 189% premium to polyester (2021 average: 150%). The VSF premium to...
Forestry & Paper: Industry Insights
FOEX pricing methodology: FOEX’s price indices include energy upcharges. Their definition for price is quite simply put as: “Transaction prices before customer-specific discounts or rebates.”Pulp prices extend gains in China, while US prices come under pressure:...
Forestry & Paper: Textiles Fibre Insights
Key w/w moves: Cotton +4%; Polyester +3%; HW DWP flat; China-origin DWP -1%; medium-grade VSF +3%; high-end VSF +3% and Lyocell +3%. Cotton’s premium to VSF is currently 76% (2021 average: 30%) and a 198% premium to polyester (2021 average: 150%). The VSF premium to...
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Chart Book and 2022 Outlook Key message: Outperformance in CY21 was driven by a general rapid recovery from the Covid lockdowns, with margins in particular recovering strongly as costs were cut. Activity levels are mostly still short of pre-Covid levels. We believe...
Cashbuild – 2022 Update
Key message: Sales have slowed down (adjusted for looting impact) after the DIY boom post-Covid. This was well flagged. We update our Cashbuild numbers as we move into CY22.The 1Q operational update confirmed the expected decline in sales after the post-Covid lockdown...
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Key message: We update our earnings as we move into CY22. Motus imported vehicle sales were very strong in 1H FY22 – inventory availability seems better than peers. We update our earnings as we now have six months of vehicle sales data. The Motus imported brands have...