Chronux Research

The leading independent research firm in South Africa

Chronux Research, founded in 2020, is an independent equity research provider focused on the South African market, with coverage spanning over ten sectors and approximately 30 companies. Within the domestic market, Chronux is particularly well recognised for its Industrials, Construction, Mid-Cap and Forestry & Paper research, where the firm combines deep sector knowledge with disciplined financial modelling and a clear, conviction-led investment framework. The team provides a global perspective on key structural and cyclical themes across the sectors covered. Chronux delivers fundamental equity research incorporating both long and short ideas with analysis driven by in-house financial models, ongoing dialogue with industry decision-makers and regular engagement with management teams. In addition to company-level research, Chronux facilitates high-level interaction with senior executives and provides access to relevant industry experts, supporting clients in forming differentiated investment views. Chronux has also been committed to developing the next generation of analysts and advancing careers within the investment industry, supported by a strong and engaged institutional client base.

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Making It Possible

Murray & Roberts – Trading Update

Key message: Management point to entering a multi-year period of strong earnings growth, which concurs with our forecasts. Delivery on the strong order book will be the key valuation factor going forward. Murray & Roberts released a trading update. Management...

Lewis Group – Capitalising on change

Lewis Group has undergone significant positive change in six years as it transforms back to a retail revenue driven business, instead of financial services. Of its revenue earned in FY14, we estimate 58% was from financial services – in FY21 its 45%. Credit sales now...

FORESTRY & PAPER: Industry Insights

Pulp prices steady but hardwood prices set to increase in Asia: First BEK price increase announced in months. The world’s largest pulp producer, Suzano will increase BEK pulp in Asia (incl. China) by USD 20/t, effective immediately. NOREXECO pulp futures for Q1 21E...

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New Vehicle Sales – November 2021 Key message: YoY comparatives are more meaningful now as comparative months are out of lockdown. We still compare to 2019 numbers though to get a real sense of where the market is. NAAMSA released November 2021 new vehicle sales. YoY...

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Key message: 1H HEPS is at record levels in constant currency and ZAR, despite lockdowns still impacting some geographies. Although cost pressure is evident, margin growth is implicit in management guidance. Bidcorp released a Trading Update for the 4 months to...

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Key message: Continued strong cashflows have removed all balance sheet concerns. Invicta remains well positioned to grow market share in the mining and industrial sectors. Invicta released 1H FY22 results. HEPS from continuing operations increased by 201% to 176c on a...

FORESTRY & PAPER: Textiles Fibre Update

Most textiles came under pressure this week but refined cotton (-10%) and cotton linter (-24%) were hit the hardest: The cottonseed price kept slipping as seed cotton harvesting was coming to an end and ginners started processing on large quantity.VSF prices down 1-3%...

FORESTRY & PAPER: Industry Update

Pulp prices stable but global shipment-to-capacity ratio of 83% points to further pressure: PPPC reported World-20 market pulp stats for October and global pulp producer stocks were flat m/m at 44 days-of-supply(BSK: -2 days to 43 and BHK: +1 day to 46), while...

PPC – 1H FY22 Results

Key message: EBITDA margins remain under 20% due to high cost inflation. ITAC tariffs on imported cement and clinker are still likely, in our opinion, and would boost our valuation by over 100c. PPC released 1H FY22 results. HEPS increased to 55c (from 30c) on a...