Chronux Research

The leading independent research firm in South Africa

Chronux Research, founded in 2020, is an independent equity research provider focused on the South African market, with coverage spanning over ten sectors and approximately 30 companies. Within the domestic market, Chronux is particularly well recognised for its Industrials, Construction, Mid-Cap and Forestry & Paper research, where the firm combines deep sector knowledge with disciplined financial modelling and a clear, conviction-led investment framework. The team provides a global perspective on key structural and cyclical themes across the sectors covered. Chronux delivers fundamental equity research incorporating both long and short ideas with analysis driven by in-house financial models, ongoing dialogue with industry decision-makers and regular engagement with management teams. In addition to company-level research, Chronux facilitates high-level interaction with senior executives and provides access to relevant industry experts, supporting clients in forming differentiated investment views. Chronux has also been committed to developing the next generation of analysts and advancing careers within the investment industry, supported by a strong and engaged institutional client base.

Our Corporate Sponsored Coverage

Making It Possible

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Key message: Private sector intervention due to government incapacity or failures is likely to be a significant growth area. South Africa appears to be at an inflection point in infrastructure development, with visible signs of neglected assets starting to have a...

Forestry & Paper: Navigator Q1 22A Insights

Slide 0 EBITDA improvement sustained by favourable S/D conditions: This allowed successful price increases across all businesses outweighing rising costs (raw materials, energy, and logistics). Revenue +44% y/y & +3% q/q; EBITDA +72% y/y & +12% q/q, which...

Forestry & Paper: Industry Insights

Pulp prices steady: NOREXECO pulp futures for CY 23E imply a 12-19% decline in Europe, and a decline of 13-17% in China. UTIPULP released March data: European pulp consumption was down 2% y/y (+7% m/m); Inventories -19% y/y (flat m/m); and Inventory days -27% y/y...

Spear REIT – Path to a ZAR10bn asset base

Path to a ZAR10bn asset base Key message: as part of its strategic plans to grow market cap and improve liquidity towards SAPY/ALPI index inclusion, Spear has ambitions to grow its investment property portfolio from ZAR4.5bn at present to >ZAR10bn within the next...

Equites Property Fund – FY22 results and valuation update

FY22 results and valuation update Key message: despite a good set of results for FY22 and stable guidance for FY23, Equites’ share price has experienced a sharp de-rating since Apr-22. We think this has opened relative value and presents a rare opportunity to build a...

Forestry & Paper: Textile Fibre Insights

Key w/w moves: Cotton -2%; Polyester -1%; HW DWP +1%; China-origin DWP +2%, medium-grade VSF +1%; and high-end VSF 0% and Lyocell +1%. Cotton’s premium to VSF is 43% (2021 average: 30%) and a 152% premium to polyester (2021 average: 150%). The VSF premium to polyester...

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Key message: Big impairment in Russia, but Barloworld (and CAT) are not pulling out of the region. It will impact earnings in the short-term. Barloworld released 1H FY22 results, with HEPS increasing 109% to 756c (HEPS from continuing operations up 79% to 447c).A...

Afrimat – FY22 Results

Key message: The medium-term investment case remains linked to the internally funded volume growth in iron ore, manganese and industrial minerals. Afrimat released FY22 results, with HEPS up 23% to 543c off a 27% and 24% increase in revenue and operating profit...

Raubex- FY22 Results

Key message: SANRAL tender cancellations and REIPP delays create uncertainty over order book growth. Raubex reported FY22 results, with revenue and operating profit increasing by 31% and 159% respectively. HEPS increased 263% to 297.4c. A final dividend of 54c was...

Calgro M3 – FY22 Results

Key message: A steady performance going back to the basics. A healthy well-funded development pipeline provides medium-term growth visibility. Book value remains understated with developments valued at cost. Calgro released FY22 results. HEPS recovered to 106c after a...