Chronux Research
The leading independent research firm in South AfricaChronux Research, founded in 2020, is an independent equity research provider focused on the South African market, with coverage spanning over ten sectors and approximately 30 companies. Within the domestic market, Chronux is particularly well recognised for its Industrials, Construction, Mid-Cap and Forestry & Paper research, where the firm combines deep sector knowledge with disciplined financial modelling and a clear, conviction-led investment framework. The team provides a global perspective on key structural and cyclical themes across the sectors covered. Chronux delivers fundamental equity research incorporating both long and short ideas with analysis driven by in-house financial models, ongoing dialogue with industry decision-makers and regular engagement with management teams. In addition to company-level research, Chronux facilitates high-level interaction with senior executives and provides access to relevant industry experts, supporting clients in forming differentiated investment views. Chronux has also been committed to developing the next generation of analysts and advancing careers within the investment industry, supported by a strong and engaged institutional client base.
Our Corporate Sponsored Coverage
Making It PossibleForestry & Paper Mondi: Q3 22A Insights
Strong performance with underlying EBITDA up 55% y/y but down 7% q/q (Q3 21A: EUR 290mn) to EUR 450mn (CRe: EUR 500mn): This was driven by higher prices and overall volume growth more than offsetting significant cost pressures. Impact of planned maintenance was c. EUR...
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Key message: Mineral volumes remain strong. The completion of the bank sale substantially increases the chances of a trade buyer looking at Grindrod. Grindrod released a Trading Update for the nine-month period to 30 September 2022. Strong mineral export markets...
Sirius Real Estate: 1H FY23 trading update
Key message: despite facing an extremely challenging macro backdrop, we think Sirius is holding up in respectable shape operationally. Even under more conservative valuation assumptions and earnings growth forecasts, we think there is clear value in the counter at the...
Forestry & Paper Mondi: Q3 22E Insights
Mondi will provide a Q3 22E trading update this Friday: We expect EBITDA to increase by 74% y/y (+4% q/q) to EUR 500mn (Q3 21A: EUR 287mn excl. Russia). We expect the impact from planned maintenance to be similar compared to Q3 21A (EUR 30mn). Q3 22A key price and FX...
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Key message: Full price paid, but sustainability of earnings unclear due to rapid growth in the last two years. Motus announced the acquisition of 100% of Motor Parts Direct (Holdings) in the UK. The acquisition price was GBP182m. With no debt as of 31 Dec 2021 the...
Forestry & Paper: Industry Insights
September average price changes: NBSK pulp +1% m/m; +12% y/y; BHKP pulp 0% m/m; +21% y/y; China BHKP net pulp 0% m/m; +39% y/y; China NBSK net pulp -3% m/m; +14% y/y; LWC +1% m/m; +74% y/y; CWF +2% m/m; +75% y/y; UWF +3% m/m; +54% y/y; Newsprint 0% m/m; +76% y/y;...
HEALTHCARE: AfroCentric Investment Corporation FY 22A Insights
FY 22A results snapshot: Revenue increased by 8% y/y, driven by the Services Business, while Retail printed low single digit growth. EBITDA was flat y/y, where the Services business margin came under pressure, while the Retail business saw robust margin expansion....
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Volumes are under pressure: the key theme of the results was that the consumer is under pressure and demand is weakening. Rising inflation and a weakening economy are the major issues impacting volumes. Margins maintained or increased, but under pressure: Operating...
Forestry & Paper: Textile Fibre Insights
Q3 22A key prices changes: The imported hardwood (HW)DP price averaged USD 1,175/t (USD: -7% q/q & +11% y/y; ZAR: +15% q/q & +35% y/y). DP/pulp spread averaged USD 312/t September 2022 key prices changes: Imported (HW) DP price averaged USD 1,116/t (USD: -7%...
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Key message: Investment in energy projects is likely to increase substantially, mainly in the private sector. This will stimulate cable and switchgear demand and provide impetus to the fast-growing energy development and storage businesses. Reunert has followed an...