Chronux Research
The leading independent research firm in South AfricaChronux Research, founded in 2020, is an independent equity research provider focused on the South African market, with coverage spanning over ten sectors and approximately 30 companies. Within the domestic market, Chronux is particularly well recognised for its Industrials, Construction, Mid-Cap and Forestry & Paper research, where the firm combines deep sector knowledge with disciplined financial modelling and a clear, conviction-led investment framework. The team provides a global perspective on key structural and cyclical themes across the sectors covered. Chronux delivers fundamental equity research incorporating both long and short ideas with analysis driven by in-house financial models, ongoing dialogue with industry decision-makers and regular engagement with management teams. In addition to company-level research, Chronux facilitates high-level interaction with senior executives and provides access to relevant industry experts, supporting clients in forming differentiated investment views. Chronux has also been committed to developing the next generation of analysts and advancing careers within the investment industry, supported by a strong and engaged institutional client base.
Our Corporate Sponsored Coverage
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Key message: The Motus Import Basket market share takes a big fall, outlook from industry turning pessimistic. NAAMSA released October 2022 new vehicle sales. Passenger and LCV sales increased 12% YoY with passenger sales up 10.4% YoY. Light Commercial sales increased...
Calgro M3 – 1H FY23 Results
Key message: 2H should see revenue of approx. R1bn as units under construction are transferred. A strong pipeline (with Frankenwald doubling opportunities) with short to medium-term infrastructure costs mostly expensed should ensure sustainable earnings. Calgro...
Forestry & Paper: Textile Fibre Insights
Key w/w moves: Cotton -3%; ICE cotton contract -9%; Polyester -2%; HW DWP 0%; China-origin 0%, medium-grade VSF -3%; and high-end VSF -4% and Lyocell 0%. Cotton is now trading at a 2% discount to VSF (2021 average premium: 30%) and a 69% premium to polyester (2021...
Afrimat – 1H FY23 Results
Key message: Consistent volume growth remains the key value driver, and diversification reduces iron ore exposure. Afrimat released 1H FY23 results, with HEPS declining 15% to 252c on a 7% increase in revenue and 12% decrease in operating profit. Lower iron ore prices...
Forestry & Paper: Billerud Sack & kraft paper Insights
Strong Q3 22A with record underlying EBITDA, despite unusually heavy maintenance: Strong organic sales growth of 20% y/y (actual +82% y/y &+4% q/q), supporting record quarterly EBITDA (+97% y/y & -3% q/q), with an EBITDA margin of 18.6%. Leverage at an...
Spear REIT: 1H FY23 results and valuation update
Key message: 1H FY23 performance met expectations and guidance. We are encouraged by Spear’s capital recycling and inorganic growth initiatives, which lift the quality and growth prospects of the portfolio. Solid 1H FY23 performance: DEPS was ZAR41.3c (+6.1% y/y),...
Forestry & Paper: Norske Skog European Graphic Paper & Paper Packaging Insights
Q3 performance was strong but relative to Q2, most metrics were weaker: Revenue +37% y/y (-8% q/q); EBITDA +355% y/y (-44% q/q); EBITDA margin +977bps y/y (-898bps q/q) to 14.0%. Net debt/EBITDA improved to 0.4x (Q3 21A: 2.7x & Q2 22A: 0.5x). Cost of materials...
Forestry & Paper: Textile Fibre Insights
Key w/w moves: Cotton -5%; ICE cotton contract -5%; Polyester -3%; HW DWP 0%; China-origin -2%, medium-grade VSF 0%; and high-end VSF 0% and Lyocell 0%. Cotton is now trading at a 2% discount to VSF (2021 average premium: 30%) and a 70% premium to polyester (2021...
Forestry & Paper: Industry Insights
Pulp shows first signs of weakness: NOREXECO pulp futures for CY 23E imply a 15-19% decline in Europe, and a decline of 11-22% in China. Ence’s Pontevedra BEK pulp mill (515ktpa of BEK pulp) still down as firm works on alternative solution for water supply. The mill...
Forestry & Paper: Textile Fibre Insights
Key w/w moves: Cotton +3%; ICE cotton contract -3%; Polyester +3%; HW DWP -3%; China-origin -1%, medium-grade VSF 0%; and high-end VSF 0% and Lyocell 0%. Cotton is now trading at a 3% premium to VSF (2021 average premium: 30%) and a 74% premium to polyester (2021...