Chronux Research
The leading independent research firm in South AfricaChronux Research, founded in 2020, is an independent equity research provider focused on the South African market, with coverage spanning over ten sectors and approximately 30 companies. Within the domestic market, Chronux is particularly well recognised for its Industrials, Construction, Mid-Cap and Forestry & Paper research, where the firm combines deep sector knowledge with disciplined financial modelling and a clear, conviction-led investment framework. The team provides a global perspective on key structural and cyclical themes across the sectors covered. Chronux delivers fundamental equity research incorporating both long and short ideas with analysis driven by in-house financial models, ongoing dialogue with industry decision-makers and regular engagement with management teams. In addition to company-level research, Chronux facilitates high-level interaction with senior executives and provides access to relevant industry experts, supporting clients in forming differentiated investment views. Chronux has also been committed to developing the next generation of analysts and advancing careers within the investment industry, supported by a strong and engaged institutional client base.
Our Corporate Sponsored Coverage
Making It PossibleForestry & Paper: Textile Fibre Insights
Key w/w moves: China cotton -1%; ICE cotton contract -6%; Polyester -4%; HW DP 0%; China-origin HW DP-1%, medium-grade VSF 0%; and high-end VSF 0% and Lyocell 0%. Cotton is trading at a 4% premium to VSF (2021 average premium: 30%) and a 92% premium to polyester (2021...
PPC – 1H FY23 Results
Key message: Weakening demand and market share wars have decimated margins. Planned price increases (12-15%) need to stick to recover cost increases. PPC released 1H FY23 results, with revenue up by 9% (excl. Zimbabwe). Excl. Zimbabwe, costs increased by 11%....
Forestry & Paper: Monthly Industry Insights
Further relief for pulp prices in Europe: Softwood pulp prices in Europe MTD are now down 8%, while hardwood is down 6%. Prices in China and North America remains stable. NOREXECO pulp futures for CY 23E imply a 15-24% decline in Europe, and a decline of 12-27% in...
Forestry & Paper: Textile Fibre Insights
Key w/w moves: Cotton +1%; ICE cotton contract +1%; Polyester -1%; HW DWP -1%; China-origin -1%, medium-grade VSF 0%; and high-end VSF 0% and Lyocell 0%. Cotton is now trading at a 2% premium to VSF (2021 average premium: 30%) and a 69% premium to polyester (2021...
Forestry & Paper: SAPPI Q4 22E Insights
Q4 22E results on Thursday 10 November, key numbers to look out for: We expect EBITDA to improve by 203% y/y (+18% q/q) to a quarterly record of USD 439mn (Consensus: USD 392mn) and EPS of USD 0.47/share (Consensus: USD 0.41/share). Europe likely to moderate q/q;...
Raubex- 1H FY23 Results
Key message: The order book growth has stalled and while growth prospects remain good there is timing risk for replacement work. Raubex reported 1H FY23 results, with revenue and operating profit increasing by 23% and 26% respectively. HEPS increased 16% to 159c. A...
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Key message: A clean break it seems, but no value for Clough. Order book and valuation roughly halves. Murray & Roberts announced the proposed sale of Clough to Webuild for a cash payment of A$500k. A A$350m payment consideration will be effective through the...
Attacq Limited: FY22 results and valuation update
Key message: Attacq’s FY22 financial performance was significantly ahead of guidance and expectations. While its near-term dividend yield (8.5% forward) does not screen attractively relative to peers and may limit its re-rating potential in the near-term, we think...
Forestry & Paper: Monthly Industry Insights
October average price changes: NBSK pulp -1% m/m; +11% y/y; BHKP pulp flat m/m; +21% y/y; China BHKP net pulp flat m/m; +47% y/y; China NBSK net pulp -1% m/m; +19% y/y; BCTMP -6% m/m; +33% y/y; LWC +3% m/m; +73% y/y; CWF +3% m/m; +74% y/y; UWF +2% m/m; +54% y/y;...
Forestry & Paper: Smurfit Kappa Paper Packaging Insights
Smurfit Kappa released a Q3 22A trading update this morning: Q3 22A revenue increased by 28% y/y (-1% q/q), while EBITDA increased by 31% y/y but down 10% q/q to EUR 593mn. Accordingly, the Q3 22A EBITDA margin was 17.8% (+35bps y/y and -188bps q/q). Corrugated growth...