Chronux Research
The leading independent research firm in South AfricaChronux Research, founded in 2020, is an independent equity research provider focused on the South African market, with coverage spanning over ten sectors and approximately 30 companies. Within the domestic market, Chronux is particularly well recognised for its Industrials, Construction, Mid-Cap and Forestry & Paper research, where the firm combines deep sector knowledge with disciplined financial modelling and a clear, conviction-led investment framework. The team provides a global perspective on key structural and cyclical themes across the sectors covered. Chronux delivers fundamental equity research incorporating both long and short ideas with analysis driven by in-house financial models, ongoing dialogue with industry decision-makers and regular engagement with management teams. In addition to company-level research, Chronux facilitates high-level interaction with senior executives and provides access to relevant industry experts, supporting clients in forming differentiated investment views. Chronux has also been committed to developing the next generation of analysts and advancing careers within the investment industry, supported by a strong and engaged institutional client base.
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Making It PossibleForestry & Paper: Industry Insights
Hardwood pulp prices show signs of stabilization in China: However, NOREXECO pulp futures for CY 23E imply a further 11-15% decline in Europe, and a further decline for softwood of up to 5% in China, with more pressure expected for Europe in 2024. In the US, spot...
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Key message: A focus on renegotiating imbalanced pricing contracts will be key to a sustainable future. Nampak released 1H FY23 results. Revenue grew by 5% with trading profit up 17%. However, forex losses of R571m reduced operating profit (before impairments) by 62%....
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Key message: The spike in WC should unwind in 2H – it indicates increased sales of new fleets and secures the LT aftermarket business. Barloworld released 1H FY23 results. Revenue increased by 13%, with EBITDA and operating profit up 12% and 17% respectively. HEPS...
Forestry & Paper: Industry Insights
Pulp prices under further pressure across all regions: NOREXECO pulp futures for CY 23E imply a further 11-15% decline in Europe, and a further decline of up to 5% in China, with more pressure expected for Europe in 2024. According to UTIPULP statistics, European...
Afrimat – FY23 Results
Key message: Consistent volume growth remains the key value driver, and diversification reduces iron ore exposure. Afrimat released FY23 results, with HEPS declining 15% to 458c on a 5% increase in revenue and 13% decrease in operating profit. Lower iron ore prices...
Calgro M3 – FY23 Results
Key message: Relatively steady state earnings are expected for future years off a well-developed pipeline. Calgro released FY23 results. HEPS increased 43% to 153c on a 15% increase in revenue. The gross profit margin remained in the target range of 20-25% at 23.5%....
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Key message: International expansion from a competitive local base does indicate the potential for above average growth. Omnia has embarked on an ambitious renewal strategy and has been able to improve operational and support structure efficiencies. A focus on moving...
Cashbuild – 1H FY23 Results
Key message: Difficult trading environment affects revenue and lowers margins from post-Covid DIY/building market boom period. Cashbuild recently released 1H FY23 results. HEPS declined 39% to 694c on a 4% and 47% decline in revenue and operating profit respectively....
Cement Import Monitor – February 23
Key message: Cement imports were down 31% in CY22, although port disruptions and a weak currency likely are having an impact. Import protection from government now appears unlikely. July to December 2022 saw imports of 348kt, down 25% from the same period in 2021....
Forestry & Paper Mondi: Q1 23A Insights
Excluding forestry fair value gains, underlying EBITDA held up relatively well considering current market conditions, with EBITDA down 6% q/q to €336mn: However, reported underlying EBITDA from continuing operations dropped 24% y/y and by -23% q/q to €351mn. This was...