Chronux Research
The leading independent research firm in South AfricaChronux Research, founded in 2020, is an independent equity research provider focused on the South African market, with coverage spanning over ten sectors and approximately 30 companies. Within the domestic market, Chronux is particularly well recognised for its Industrials, Construction, Mid-Cap and Forestry & Paper research, where the firm combines deep sector knowledge with disciplined financial modelling and a clear, conviction-led investment framework. The team provides a global perspective on key structural and cyclical themes across the sectors covered. Chronux delivers fundamental equity research incorporating both long and short ideas with analysis driven by in-house financial models, ongoing dialogue with industry decision-makers and regular engagement with management teams. In addition to company-level research, Chronux facilitates high-level interaction with senior executives and provides access to relevant industry experts, supporting clients in forming differentiated investment views. Chronux has also been committed to developing the next generation of analysts and advancing careers within the investment industry, supported by a strong and engaged institutional client base.
Our Corporate Sponsored Coverage
Making It PossibleForestry & Paper: Sappi Q4 23A Insights
Financial highlights from the quarter: Group sales improved by 4% q-o-q (-28% y-o-y), missing our estimate by 4% (driven by Europe and North America). Meanwhile, group EBITDA improved by 58% q-o-q (-57% y-o-y), 25% ahead of our estimate. This was largely due to a...
Forestry & Paper: Sappi Ltd Q4 23E Insights
Sappi to report Q4 23E results on Thursday, 9 November: EBITDA has fallen for three consecutive quarters; however, we expect Q4 23E EBITDA to increase by 27% q-o-q (-66% y-o-y) to $135mn (+41% y/y; -14% q/q) with EPS of $0.08/share. This is driven largely by improved...
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Key message: Light commercial sales and passenger vehicles impacted by the stressed consumer and business environment. NAAMSA released October 2023 new vehicle sales. Passenger and LCV sales decreased 5.0% YoY with passenger sales down 2.2% YoY. Sales of vehicles...
Forestry & Paper: Smurfit Kappa Group: Q3 23A Insights
Key highlights from the quarter: Sales softened by 5% q-o-q (-19% y-o-y), driven by lower corrugated box pricing (around -6% q-o-q) and lower corrugated box volumes (-2% y-o-y). This largely explained the fall in EBITDA, down 4% q-o-q (-14% y-o-y), while the EBITDA...
Forestry & Paper: Navigator Company Q3 23A Insights (UWF paper, Pulp and Tissue)
Key financial highlights from the quarter: Revenue marginally increased by +1% q-o-q (-29% y-o-y). EBITDA also ticked up slightly by +1% q-o-q (-40% y-o-y) with the Group EBITDA margin stable at 25.7% (Q3 23A: 30.5%). Gearing remains well controlled with net...
Forestry & Paper: Nordic Paper Q3 23A Insights (Kraft Paper)
Key financial highlights from the quarter: Sales increased by 4% y-o-y, boosted by FX and higher volumes (+9% y-o-y). Sales however slowed by 7% q-o-q on the back of lower pricing. Group EBITDA slumped 50% q-o-q (+40% y-o-y) with an EBITDA margin of 10%, impacted by...
Afrimat – 1H FY24 Results
Afrimat – 1H FY24 Results Key message: Nkomati should contribute substantially in 2H with steady state achieved in Oct 2023. Afrimat released 1H FY24 results, with HEPS increasing 4% to 263.4c on a 10% increase in revenue and 4.3% increase in operating profit. Lower...
Calgro M3 – 1H FY24 Results
Key message: Relatively steady state earnings are expected for future years off a well-developed pipeline. Calgro released 1H FY24 results. HEPS increased 38% to 78.9c on a 14% increase in revenue. The gross profit margin remained in the target range of 20-25% at...
Cement Import Monitor: Imports to August 23
Key message: Imports stable relative to 2022. The weak ZAR has resulted in imported cement prices increasing 4% YTD. January to August 2023 saw imports of 652kt, flat compared to the same period in 2022. Cement imports fell 31% to 730kt for CY22. Cement imports to...
Forestry & Paper Mondi: Q3 23A Insights
Underlying EBITDA in Q3 23A fell 42% y-o-y and -21% q-o-q to €261mn: Adjusting for the forestry FV gain (€14mn), underling EBITDA softened by 4% q-o-q to €247mn (-40% y-o-y). Mondi confirmed that market conditions remain challenging, however order books for...