Chronux Research
The leading independent research firm in South AfricaChronux Research, founded in 2020, is an independent equity research provider focused on the South African market, with coverage spanning over ten sectors and approximately 30 companies. Within the domestic market, Chronux is particularly well recognised for its Industrials, Construction, Mid-Cap and Forestry & Paper research, where the firm combines deep sector knowledge with disciplined financial modelling and a clear, conviction-led investment framework. The team provides a global perspective on key structural and cyclical themes across the sectors covered. Chronux delivers fundamental equity research incorporating both long and short ideas with analysis driven by in-house financial models, ongoing dialogue with industry decision-makers and regular engagement with management teams. In addition to company-level research, Chronux facilitates high-level interaction with senior executives and provides access to relevant industry experts, supporting clients in forming differentiated investment views. Chronux has also been committed to developing the next generation of analysts and advancing careers within the investment industry, supported by a strong and engaged institutional client base.
Our Corporate Sponsored Coverage
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Key message: We initiate on WeBuyCars with a Target Price of R23.50 (an average of the DCF and Sum-of-the-Parts valuations). WeBuyCars (WBC) will list separately on the JSE on 11 April 2024 after being unbundled from Transaction Capital. WeBuyCars was established in...
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Key message: Passenger sales remain weak with 2024 set to be a tough year for the car market. Commercial sales and exports succumb to market headwinds. NAAMSA released March 2024 new vehicle sales. Passenger and LCV sales decreased 12.4% YoY with passenger sales down...
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Key message: The market weakened in 2H but a return to profit and possible dividend payment in FY24 are positives. PPC released an operational update for the ten months to 31 January 2024. Revenue increased by 27.6% driven mainly by PPC Zimbabwe (coming off a low base...
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Key message: We expect flat HEPS growth as the impact of lower ammonia prices is balanced by volume growth, no hyperinflation losses in Zimbabwe and a lower tax rate. We update our forecasts for Omnia after their recent market update (Sun City conference) and meeting...
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Key message: Improved returns and strong cash generation remain under-appreciated. Barloworld released a 5-month Trading Update for 1H FY24. Group revenue declined by 5.5% for the 5-month period with EBITDA down 2.5% (EBITDA margin up to 11.9% from 11.5%, operating...
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Key message: Strong performance from Port of Maputo. Overall volumes should maintain into FY24 with expansion due from FY26. Grindrod reported FY23 results. EBITDA and headline earnings from core operations increased by 16% and 29% respectively, driven by record...
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Key message: Good defensive qualities and offshore exposure should help Invicta maintain earnings in a tough environment. We update our Invicta forecasts after a meeting with management before closed period. Overall markets remain tough, but Invicta is holding steady....
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Key message: Well positioned in raw material supply, AMSA has been let down by the state (lack of demand and services – energy and rail in particular). We initiate on AMSA following the FY23 results, which were negatively impacted by a number of issues - weak global...
Cement Import Monitor – Imports to January 2024
Key message: Imported cement volumes increased 18% in CY2023 with port issues apparently not impacting volumes. Cement imports for CY2023 increased by 18% to 979kt, with 2H CY23 imports up 43% relative to 2H CY22. Vietnam continues to be the primary source of imported...
Forestry & Paper: Industry Insights
The increase in pulp prices by 3-4% in Europe contrasts with the stable prices observed in China: Arauco expressed concerns about the Chinese market during its recent results, noting uncertainties regarding both demand and the overall economic situation. The upcoming...