Chronux Research
The leading independent research firm in South AfricaChronux Research, founded in 2020, is an independent equity research provider focused on the South African market, with coverage spanning over ten sectors and approximately 30 companies. Within the domestic market, Chronux is particularly well recognised for its Industrials, Construction, Mid-Cap and Forestry & Paper research, where the firm combines deep sector knowledge with disciplined financial modelling and a clear, conviction-led investment framework. The team provides a global perspective on key structural and cyclical themes across the sectors covered. Chronux delivers fundamental equity research incorporating both long and short ideas with analysis driven by in-house financial models, ongoing dialogue with industry decision-makers and regular engagement with management teams. In addition to company-level research, Chronux facilitates high-level interaction with senior executives and provides access to relevant industry experts, supporting clients in forming differentiated investment views. Chronux has also been committed to developing the next generation of analysts and advancing careers within the investment industry, supported by a strong and engaged institutional client base.
Our Corporate Sponsored Coverage
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📦 Financial Performance: Adjusted EBITDA aligned with guidance at $1,252mn, but 5% ahead of consensus. However, free cash flow remained negative at -$144mn, and net debt rose by +5% QoQ with net debt/EBITDA of around 3,2x (to fall to 2,9x in Q2). FY 25e capex of...
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📦 Financial Performance: Results were driven by the DS Smith acquisition and stronger pricing in North America. Adjusted EBITDA exceeded consensus by +13%. Net debt/adjusted EBITDA stands at 2.7x. 📦 Corrugated Box Demand: 2025 North American demand, initially forecast...
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New Vehicle Sales – April 2025 Key message: Continued growth in passenger sales but pricing competitive. NAAMSA released April 2025 new vehicle sales. Passenger and LCV sales increased 13.2% YoY with passenger sales up 16.9% YoY. Light Commercial sales increased by...
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📦 Financial Performance: Group EBITDA was flat QoQ (+3% YoY), which fell -8% short of consensus. Net debt ticked up by +1%, with net debt/EBITDA now standing at 1,5x. 📦 Further kraftliner price increases are mainly cost driven: The announced price increase for...
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📦 Financial Performance: EBITDA declined by -3% QoQ and -14% YoY, falling short of consensus by -3%. Net debt increased by +3% QoQ, pushing the net debt/EBITDA ratio to 1.8x. 📦 Graphic Paper (read-through for Sappi, partly for Mondi): Demand for graphic paper in both...
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European containerboard and graphic paper insights 📦 Financial Performance: Q1 EBITDA was supported by insurance proceeds and still came in +5% above consensus expectations. Net debt/EBITDA stands at 3.6x. 📦 Graphic Paper: Strong delivery...
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📦 Weekly Wrap-Up: Pulp markets had some significant price movements this week with hard wood paper pulp rising by around +2% in Europe and China. Meanwhile, the hardwood DP price remained unchanged, and this pushed the DP/pulp spread below $300/t for the first time...
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Key message: Flat performance excluding Russia reflecting tough trading conditions in southern Africa but continued strong growth in Mongolia. Barloworld recently released a Trading Update for the five months to February 2025. Revenue and operating profit declined...
Sirius Real Estate: FY25 trading and valuation update
Key message: Sirius is set to deliver FY25 financial performance in line with guidance, where there are headwinds to FFO per share growth given the dilution from new shares issued in the financial year and cash drag on earnings as the proceeds await deployment into...
Hulamin – Initiation
Key message: Strong organic growth opportunity in being able to supply wide can body stock (CBS) and increase scrap absorption. We initiate on Hulamin with a Target Price of R5.30. Hulamin has a strong organic growth opportunity with the wide can body stock (CBS)...