Chronux Research
The leading independent research firm in South AfricaChronux Research, founded in 2020, is an independent equity research provider focused on the South African market, with coverage spanning over ten sectors and approximately 30 companies. Within the domestic market, Chronux is particularly well recognised for its Industrials, Construction, Mid-Cap and Forestry & Paper research, where the firm combines deep sector knowledge with disciplined financial modelling and a clear, conviction-led investment framework. The team provides a global perspective on key structural and cyclical themes across the sectors covered. Chronux delivers fundamental equity research incorporating both long and short ideas with analysis driven by in-house financial models, ongoing dialogue with industry decision-makers and regular engagement with management teams. In addition to company-level research, Chronux facilitates high-level interaction with senior executives and provides access to relevant industry experts, supporting clients in forming differentiated investment views. Chronux has also been committed to developing the next generation of analysts and advancing careers within the investment industry, supported by a strong and engaged institutional client base.
Our Corporate Sponsored Coverage
Making It PossibleSasol: Spotlight on earnings – latest profit drivers
Sasol’s spot earnings increased this week as oil prices recovered and petrol cracks in particular increases significantly. Diesel cracks remain negative, however. FY21 spot earnings are at R5.86/share while we expect a loss of R2.92/share at the LCCP at...
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Key message: Still somewhat noisy with non-trading items large (excl. Covid impacts). Large divisions Services and Freight look set for a good FY21. Bidvest released FY20 results. Revenue from continuing operations increased by 0.6% but trading profit declined by...
Forestry & Paper Weekly Industry Insights
Week ahead: 1/1 calls with Valmet, Stora Enso, International Paper and Mondi. European corrugated shipments mixed for first seven months due to tourism or lack thereof: Germany (+0.3%) and Austria (+0.1%), while Poland, Czech Republic, Russia and Turkey have...
Sasol: Spotlight on earnings – latest profit drivers
Sasol’s spot earnings continue to decline and FY21 spot earnings is at R3.23/share. Oil prices declined by almost 8% this week and refining margins remain particularly weak. Diesel crack spreads turned negative this week while petrol cracks are at...
UPM: 2020 Capital Markets Day
Transformation journey since 2009: In 2009, sales comprised 60% Communication Papers (EBIT margin: 5%) and in 2019, Growing businesses are now 60% (EBIT margin: 16%). This has been driven by fixing the balance sheet, driving performance and preparing for growth. Focus...
Sasol: South African fuel sales – recovery underway
Fuel taxes and duties: Government imposes a levy as well as an excise duty on liquid fuel sales in South Africa. Fuel levies have been adjusted each year, but the excise levy has been constant for many years. Government revenues from these...
DS Smith: European Packaging Insights
DS Smith trading update this morning (from 1 May 2020): Positive corrugated volume growth in August, and dividends to resume. August sees positive volume growth of 1-2% (like for like y/y): Good news for DS Smith as they lagged both Mondi (box volumes: +4.8%) and...
Forestry & Paper Weekly Industry Insights
Following UPM and SCA’s announced capacity closures, Stora Enso could follow suit: According to Talouselämä, Stora is considering the closure of its Veitsiluoto and Anjala mills. As with the UPM and SCA closures, both mills are in Finland. Finland has recently been...
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FY20 Results Key message: Volatility in polymer margins continues to impact KAP, with average margins declining 15% YoY. We value KAP at what we consider to be the mid-range operating margin of 5% in the Chemical division. KAP recently released FY20 results. HEPS...
Lecta: European CWF and Specialties Insights (Q2 20A)
SAP’s European operations are roughly 3x Lecta’s (based on volumes: Lecta’s Q2 19A EBITDA margin contracted by 727 bps y/y to 1.0%. This was ahead of SAP’s -0.2% EBITDA margin over the same period.Lecta’s sales volumes underperformed Sappi: Lecta’s CWF volumes...