Chronux Research

The leading independent research firm in South Africa

Chronux Research, founded in 2020, is an independent equity research provider focused on the South African market, with coverage spanning over ten sectors and approximately 30 companies. Within the domestic market, Chronux is particularly well recognised for its Industrials, Construction, Mid-Cap and Forestry & Paper research, where the firm combines deep sector knowledge with disciplined financial modelling and a clear, conviction-led investment framework. The team provides a global perspective on key structural and cyclical themes across the sectors covered. Chronux delivers fundamental equity research incorporating both long and short ideas with analysis driven by in-house financial models, ongoing dialogue with industry decision-makers and regular engagement with management teams. In addition to company-level research, Chronux facilitates high-level interaction with senior executives and provides access to relevant industry experts, supporting clients in forming differentiated investment views. Chronux has also been committed to developing the next generation of analysts and advancing careers within the investment industry, supported by a strong and engaged institutional client base.

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Sasol: Spotlight on earnings – latest profit drivers

Sasol’s spot earnings were slightly lower this week as refining margins weakened, and ethane prices increased.  FY21 spot earnings are at R6.72/share for FY21.  Diesel crack spreads remain weak and petrol cracks have declined by $2/bbl (>50%).Asian...

SA Economic and Restructuring Plan

Has Cyril provided a Boost for Construction Key message: Some specific comments bode well for the Construction sector, although the overall message is typical in grand plans with little detail or timelines. Cyril Ramaphosa delivered South Africa’s Economic and...

Mondi:Q3 20A Trading Update

Underlying EBITDA down 20% y/y to EUR 306mn: As expected, the quarter was impacted by lower average selling prices across the board and adverse FX, offsetting relief from lower costs. The planned maintenance shuts impacted EBITDA by EUR 35mn (Q3 19A: EUR...

PPC – FY20 Results

The Adults are Back in the Room Key message: Competent management is back in the saddle, after years of weak strategic and financial oversight. While the balance sheet is still strained and the cement market only in the early stages of a recovery, PPC at least has a...

Restricted content

Key message: An exercise in operational and financial gearing impacts, FY20 was severely impacted by Covid-19 lockdowns. Earnings season for many Diversified Industrials has past and we reflect on some of the themes from the results.Covid-19 lockdowns impacted all of...

Global Dissolving Wood Pulp (DWP)

DWP demand is down around 8% or 600kt: This has forced suppliers to act in order to rebalance the market. LT DWP drivers remain intact with planned viscose fibre (VSF) expansions of c.1mtpa (55% Lycocell and 45% commodity VSF). Additional Lycocel capacity in China...

Global Paper Pulp

Global Printing & Board (P&B) production is expected to decline by 7% in CY 20e: This equates to a decline of 27mt, in line with the global financial crisis. Graphic Paper to be hit the hardest (-13%), followed by Packaging (-7%), while Tissue demand (+4%) is...

China presses stop button on RCP imports

Chinese RCP buying now mostly done: Most of the 2020 import quotas have been filled as RCP from the US and Europe takes up to 45-60 days to reach China.Jan-August 2020 China RCP imports down 47% to 3.8mt: August imports have mimicked the trend seen in 2020 in...

Sasol: Spotlight on earnings – latest profit drivers

Sasol’s spot earnings were flat this week as slightly higher oil prices and refining margins were offset by a stronger rand.  FY21 spot earnings are at R6.56/share for FY21.  Refining margins remain particularly weak and diesel cracks are still...

PPC – FY20 Trading Update

Key message: Evidence of PPC correcting management and corporate governance lapses are growing. Strong cement markets could significantly plug financial holes. PPC has delayed its FY20 results again as additional financial errors have been found. PPC is repairing the...