Chronux Research
The leading independent research firm in South AfricaChronux Research, founded in 2020, is an independent equity research provider focused on the South African market, with coverage spanning over ten sectors and approximately 30 companies. Within the domestic market, Chronux is particularly well recognised for its Industrials, Construction, Mid-Cap and Forestry & Paper research, where the firm combines deep sector knowledge with disciplined financial modelling and a clear, conviction-led investment framework. The team provides a global perspective on key structural and cyclical themes across the sectors covered. Chronux delivers fundamental equity research incorporating both long and short ideas with analysis driven by in-house financial models, ongoing dialogue with industry decision-makers and regular engagement with management teams. In addition to company-level research, Chronux facilitates high-level interaction with senior executives and provides access to relevant industry experts, supporting clients in forming differentiated investment views. Chronux has also been committed to developing the next generation of analysts and advancing careers within the investment industry, supported by a strong and engaged institutional client base.
Our Corporate Sponsored Coverage
Making It PossibleForestry & Paper: Sappi Q2 21e Insights
Q2 21E results tomorrow, key numbers to look out for: EBITDA USD 123m (-6% y/y and +25% q/q) and EPS of USD 0/share. We expect a slight uptick in net debt to USD 2.115mn with net debt/EBITDA of 6.4x. Refer to Segmental outlook. European EBITDA margin to come under...
Restricted content
New Vehicle Sales – April 2021 Key message: Comparative months are now Covid-impacted, and YoY comparisons are not consistent. We will start to compare current months with the comparative from two years ago to get a real sense of the state of new car sales....
Restricted content
Stuff You Should Know Key message: The Competition Commission released the final Guidelines for Competition in the South African Automotive Aftermarket (also referred to as the Right-to-Repair Bill) on 19 December 2020. The Guidelines take effect on 1 July 2021. The...
Sasol: Spotlight on earnings – latest profit drivers
Sasol’s spot earnings are higher this week and core earnings for FY21 are at R28.98/share. FY21 earnings become less sensitive to drivers as the financial year draws to an end. Spot headline earnings for FY22 is at R53.16/share. Oil prices were...
Restricted content
Key message: We have done an extensive update to our model to account for improved segmental disclosure and the significant Covid impact on the business. Motus has in general performed significantly better than our expectations, but we highlight some challenges to...
Forestry & Paper Textiles Fibre Weekly Update
Key YTD moves: Polyester +14%; HW DWP +52%; China-origin DWP +43%; medium-grade VSF +26% and high-end VSF +36%. Further pressure on VSF prices (high-end holding up better), down 8% in three weeks: The VSF operating rate has also weakened from 83% to 74%, impacted this...
Sasol: Spotlight on earnings – latest profit drivers
Sasol’s spot earnings are higher this week and core earnings for FY21 are at R28.81/share. Spot headline earnings for FY22 breached R50/share. Oil prices were slightly higher but refining margins remain weak.Monomer prices in Asia increased but...
Forestry & Paper Weekly Price Update
Pulp gains further ground across the board (two week % moves: Europe +7%; US +6% and China +2-7%): Demand remains solid, price differentials with Europe and other regions and supply-side continues to provide strong underpin for prices. Graphic paper prices not...
Forestry & Paper Industry News Insigths
Stora Enso confirms plans to close two loss making paper mills in Europe: This would remove 1.4tpa of paper capacity and 1.3mpta of pulp capacity.Stora Enso to reduce its paper footprint by 35% to 2.6mtpa: Annual paper sales are expected to decrease by EUR 600mn, with...
Forestry & Paper Textiles Fibre Weekly Update
Key YTD moves: Polyester +17%; HW DWP +51%; China-origin DWP +43%; medium-grade VSF +16% and high-end VSF +38%. Further pressure on VSF prices, down 5% in two weeks: Modal has been stable, while lyocell market has been rumoured to seeing producers selling under...