Chronux Research
The leading independent research firm in South AfricaChronux Research, founded in 2020, is an independent equity research provider focused on the South African market, with coverage spanning over ten sectors and approximately 30 companies. Within the domestic market, Chronux is particularly well recognised for its Industrials, Construction, Mid-Cap and Forestry & Paper research, where the firm combines deep sector knowledge with disciplined financial modelling and a clear, conviction-led investment framework. The team provides a global perspective on key structural and cyclical themes across the sectors covered. Chronux delivers fundamental equity research incorporating both long and short ideas with analysis driven by in-house financial models, ongoing dialogue with industry decision-makers and regular engagement with management teams. In addition to company-level research, Chronux facilitates high-level interaction with senior executives and provides access to relevant industry experts, supporting clients in forming differentiated investment views. Chronux has also been committed to developing the next generation of analysts and advancing careers within the investment industry, supported by a strong and engaged institutional client base.
Our Corporate Sponsored Coverage
Making It PossiblePPC – FY21 Trading Update
Key message: FY21 will be a messy result, but underlying cement operations are experiencing strong demand with price increases holding. Expect margin guidance of +20% in the SA cement business. PPC released a trading update for FY21. Group EPS is expected to be...
Forestry & Paper: Weekly Price Update
Pulp prices jump 4-7% in Europe, while stable in China: Import prices into China remain stable, while domestic resale prices and futures come under pressure. Two new cash settled pulp futures contracts launched on NOREXECO last week. The CY 22E contract implies a 11%...
Forestry & Paper: Navigator Q1 21A Insight (UWF & Pulp)
Turnover -16% y/y & EBITDA -20% y/y (-6% q/q): Lower volumes for Paper (-14%) and Pulp (-14%), while Tissue was up 11%. With lower UWF production, the EBITDA margin contracted by 107bps y/y (-128bps q/q) to 20.7%. With strong FCF generation (+279% y/y), this...
Afrimat – FY21 Results
A Rapid Transformation Key message: Afrimat will rapidly transition into a mid-scale mining house, with revenues set to triple over the next three years and debt forecast to fully paid off at the end of that period. Afrimat released FY21 results, with HEPS up 27% to...
Forestry & Paper: Textiles Fibre Weekly Update
Key YTD moves: Polyester +16%; HW DWP +45%; China-origin DWP +43%; medium-grade VSF +11% and high-end VSF +13%. In contrast, Lyocell is only up 3%. VSF prices came under further pressure this week (medium-grade down 3.4% and high-grade down 1.5%): The VSF operating...
Forestry & Paper Weekly Industry Insights
Mondi completes acquisition of Olmuksan from IP for EUR 66mn: This follows on from the announcement on 5 January 2021 of MNP’s intention to acquire 90.8% of the company, with an EV of EUR 88mn on a 100% basis. MNP will now launch a mandatory tender offer to acquire...
Sasol: Spotlight on earnings – latest profit drivers
Spot earnings remain flat as higher oil price and refining margins are offset by lower chemical prices. FY22 spot earnings are at R52.30/share.Around 12% of the upside to spot earnings in FY22 arise from higher chemical prices. Chemical prices in Asia declined...
Forestry & Paper Weekly Price Update
Pulp prices stable but could soon change: The Chinese government announced they would curb commodity prices in China (hardwood DWP down 4% this week to USD 1,060/t). Bleached softwood kraft (BSK) pulp futures are now down USD 147/t in the past two weeks (currently RMB...
Restricted content
New Vehicle Sales – May 2021 Key message: Comparative months are now Covid-impacted, and YoY comparisons are not consistent. We will start to compare current months with the comparative from two years ago to get a real sense of the state of new car sales....
Forestry & Paper: Textile Fibre Weekly Update
Key YTD moves: Polyester +13%; HW DWP +51%; China-origin DWP +43%; medium-grade VSF +15% and high-end VSF +14%. In contrast, Lyocell is only up 4%. VSF prices drop c.4-9% w/w: The VSF operating rate dropped 300bps to 77%, impacted by maintenance of some Jiangsu-based...