Chronux Research
The leading independent research firm in South AfricaChronux Research, founded in 2020, is an independent equity research provider focused on the South African market, with coverage spanning over ten sectors and approximately 30 companies. Within the domestic market, Chronux is particularly well recognised for its Industrials, Construction, Mid-Cap and Forestry & Paper research, where the firm combines deep sector knowledge with disciplined financial modelling and a clear, conviction-led investment framework. The team provides a global perspective on key structural and cyclical themes across the sectors covered. Chronux delivers fundamental equity research incorporating both long and short ideas with analysis driven by in-house financial models, ongoing dialogue with industry decision-makers and regular engagement with management teams. In addition to company-level research, Chronux facilitates high-level interaction with senior executives and provides access to relevant industry experts, supporting clients in forming differentiated investment views. Chronux has also been committed to developing the next generation of analysts and advancing careers within the investment industry, supported by a strong and engaged institutional client base.
Our Corporate Sponsored Coverage
Making It PossibleCement Import Monitor
May 2021 Key message: We initiate a Cement Import Monitor to track imports by port and country of origin. We initiate a Cement Import Monitor to track imports by port and country of origin.May 2021 saw imports of 95 614 tons.The 12-month rolling annual import level is...
Forestry & Paper: Industry Price Update
Europe pulp prices rise further, while China prices in the red again: Despite European pulp prices rising further, producers had to settle for less than planned despite strong demand. Momentum could now be hampered by prices moderating in China. Softwood producers...
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Key message: Post a recent Trading Update and updated restaurant booking in the light of continued Covid lockdowns, we update our numbers. Bidcorp released a Trading Update in early June. We look at updated restaurant bookings in this note and update our forecasts for...
Forestry & Paper: Textiles Fibre Update
Key YTD moves: Polyester +21%; HW DWP +38%; China-origin DWP +30%; medium-grade VSF +11% and high-end VSF +13%. In contrast, Lyocell is down 5%. VSF trading mood finally shows signs of improving after weeks of sustained pricing pressure: Sateri and Tanshan Sanyou were...
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Firm offer by DP World Key message: A very good offer, in our opinion, as it monetises current cash proceeds from sales and future blue-sky growth. Imperial Logistics announced that a firm offer by DP World to acquire all the issued share capital by scheme of...
Forestry & Paper: Industry Price Update
Europe pulp prices rise further, while China prices in the red: Chinese pulp prices slipped further this week, while domestic and futures prices improved slightly. NOREXECO pulp futures saw downward adjustments with the CY 22E contract implying a 13% decline in Europe...
Forestry & Paper: Textiles Fibre Update
Key YTD moves: Polyester +19%; HW DWP +44%; China-origin DWP +33%; medium-grade VSF +10% and high-end VSF +13%. In contrast, Lyocell is down 2%. Further pressure on VSF pricing as trades remain thin: The VSF operating rate dropped to 67% as Chengdu Grace Fiber was...
Forestry & Paper Price Update
Pulp prices stable but with mounting pressure in China: Most softwood producers are cutting prices by at least USD 50/t in China due to the ongoing purchasing standstill. Chinese pulp imports for May saw volumes flat m/m by up 19% y/y to 2mt. May PPPC stats indicated...
Forestry & Paper Industry Insights
Fedrigoni Q1 21A results (Europe’s leading player in specialty papers and wine labels and 3rd largest self-adhesive materials producer globally): Adjusted EBITDA increased by 11.3% y/y to EUR 48.3mn (FY 20A: Revenue EUR 1,315mn; EBITDA EUR 197mn and EBITDA margin...
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Key message: A strong balance sheet turnaround has boosted our valuation – and the divisional outlook is underpinned by a recovery in the industrial and mining sectors in South Africa. Current disposals should reduce net debt to approx. zero at the end of FY22....