Chronux Research
The leading independent research firm in South AfricaChronux Research, founded in 2020, is an independent equity research provider focused on the South African market, with coverage spanning over ten sectors and approximately 30 companies. Within the domestic market, Chronux is particularly well recognised for its Industrials, Construction, Mid-Cap and Forestry & Paper research, where the firm combines deep sector knowledge with disciplined financial modelling and a clear, conviction-led investment framework. The team provides a global perspective on key structural and cyclical themes across the sectors covered. Chronux delivers fundamental equity research incorporating both long and short ideas with analysis driven by in-house financial models, ongoing dialogue with industry decision-makers and regular engagement with management teams. In addition to company-level research, Chronux facilitates high-level interaction with senior executives and provides access to relevant industry experts, supporting clients in forming differentiated investment views. Chronux has also been committed to developing the next generation of analysts and advancing careers within the investment industry, supported by a strong and engaged institutional client base.
Our Corporate Sponsored Coverage
Making It PossibleForestry & Paper: Price Update
China and US pulp prices in the red: China pulp prices are likely to remain stable, if not improve slightly as China exits a lower demand season and if China is able to export more paper assuming logistics improve. Pulp stocks in China are reducing again, which...
Forestry & Paper: Textiles Fibre Update
Key YTD moves: Cotton +18%; Polyester +20%; HW DWP +38%; China-origin DWP +27%; medium-grade VSF +15% and high-end VSF +16%. In contrast, Lyocell is down 5%. VSF price slightly lower this week: The VSF operating rate improved to 79% as units in Southeast China came...
Forestry & Paper: Price Update
Pulp prices broadly stable but with slight pressure in China: China import pulp prices for hardwood are now down 18% in the last eight weeks. NOREXECO pulp futures for the Q4 20E contract imply a 12-13% decline in Europe vs. a 2% decline in China. European...
Forestry & Paper: Textile Fibres Update
Key YTD moves: Cotton +15%; Polyester +22%; HW DWP +38%; China-origin DWP +26%; medium-grade VSF +15% and high-end VSF +16%. In contrast, Lyocell is down 5%. VSF prices tick up slightly this week: The VSF operating rate improved to 78% as units in Southeast China came...
Mpact – 1H FY21 Results
Key message: Volumes recover well with paper margins boosted from switching low-margin paper exports to the local market. Some cost pressures should be recovered through price increases in 2H. Mpact released 1H FY21 results. Revenue increased 16.3% on a 13.2% increase...
Forestry & Paper: Sappi Q3 21E Insights
Q3 21E results this Thursday, key numbers to look out for: EBITDA USD 134mn (+417% y/y and +9% q/q) and EPS of USD 0.04/share. Recent unrest in South Africa and Transnet force majeure will impact Q4: SAP had already guided to lower volumes (DWP: -28kt and Graphic...
EOH – Meeting with Management
We recently met with various executives at EOH to better understand and appreciate the changes to the business since last meeting the company in 2018, prior to the appointment of Stephen van Coller as CEO. In the past two years it is one of the most reported on SA...
Restricted content
New Vehicle Sales – July 2021 Key message: On 1 July 2021, the Competition Commission’s Guidelines for Competition in the South African Automotive Aftermarket become effective. The final guidelines were issued on 29 January 2021 and are available on the Commission’s...
Forestry & Paper: Textiles Fibre Update
Key YTD moves: Polyester +25%; HW DWP +38%; China-origin DWP +26%; medium-grade VSF +14% and high-end VSF +15%. In contrast, Lyocell is down 5%. VSF prices gaining more traction: The VSF operating rate improved to 76%, while VSF inventory days dropped again this week...
Forestry & Paper: The Navigator Company Q2 21A UWF Insights
Q2 21A saw the fourth consecutive quarterly improvement in EBITDA: Turnover +29% y/y (+10% q/q) & EBITDA +55% y/y (+13% q/q). Higher production volumes for UWF Paper (+66% y/y & +12% q/q) and Pulp (+41% y/y & +13% q/q), while Tissue was down 3%. The EBITDA...