Chronux Research
The leading independent research firm in South AfricaChronux Research, founded in 2020, is an independent equity research provider focused on the South African market, with coverage spanning over ten sectors and approximately 30 companies. Within the domestic market, Chronux is particularly well recognised for its Industrials, Construction, Mid-Cap and Forestry & Paper research, where the firm combines deep sector knowledge with disciplined financial modelling and a clear, conviction-led investment framework. The team provides a global perspective on key structural and cyclical themes across the sectors covered. Chronux delivers fundamental equity research incorporating both long and short ideas with analysis driven by in-house financial models, ongoing dialogue with industry decision-makers and regular engagement with management teams. In addition to company-level research, Chronux facilitates high-level interaction with senior executives and provides access to relevant industry experts, supporting clients in forming differentiated investment views. Chronux has also been committed to developing the next generation of analysts and advancing careers within the investment industry, supported by a strong and engaged institutional client base.
Our Corporate Sponsored Coverage
Making It PossibleFORESTRY & PAPER: Sappi Q4 21E Insights
Q4 21E results this Thursday (11 November), key numbers to look out for: Q4 to mark the fifth consecutive quarter of EBITDA improving to USD 189mn (+130% y/y and +30% q/q) and EPS of USD 0.11/share. Refer to Segmental outlook. Another strong quarter expected for DWP:...
FORESTRY & PAPER: Textiles Fibre Update
Key YTD moves: Cotton +41%; Polyester +23%; HW DWP +29%; China-origin DWP +17%; medium-grade VSF +26%; high-end VSF +27% and Lyocell -8%. Cotton is currently trading at a 48% premium to VSF (YTD average: 24%) and at a 195% premium to polyester (YTD average: 140%). VSF...
Forestry & Paper: Industry Price Update
Further pressure on pulp prices in China: China hardwood declined by 3% w/w, while softwood dropped 5%. Currently, the spread between pulp prices in Europe and China is c. EUR 200/t, which is not sustainable. NOREXECO pulp futures for Q1 21E imply a 13-17% decline in...
Afrimat – 1H FY22 Results
Its about Volumes Not Prices Key message: Iron ore prices have retreated significantly, but we still forecast revenue in FY24 to be 2.4 times that in FY21 due to volume growth in existing and new mines. Afrimat released 1H FY22 results, with HEPS up 60.5% to 295.1c...
Forestry & Paper: Lenzing Q3 21A Textile Fibre Insights
Lenzing reported Q3 21A results this morning: Nine-months ending 30 September paints a pretty picture but Q3 earnings came under pressure. Q3 21A revenue increased by 44% y/y and by 2% q/q. EBIT increased by 956% y/y but declined by 53% q/q. The EBIT margin of 7.1%...
Forestry & Paper: Smurfit Kappa Packaging Insights
Smurfit Kappa released a strong Q3 21A trading update this morning: Q3 21A revenue increased by 22% y/y, while EBITDA increased by 16% y/y and by 16% q/q to EUR 454mn. Accordingly, the Q3 21A EBITDA margin was 17.4%. Strong corrugated growth for the nine months ended...
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New Vehicle Sales – October 2021 Key message: YoY comparatives are more meaningful now as comparative months are out of lockdown. We still compare to 2019 numbers though to get a real sense of where the market is. NAAMSA released October 2021 new vehicle sales. YoY...
Forestry & Paper: Industry Price Update
Pulp prices broadly stable: However, the SHFE BSK futures fell again this week, undermining arbitrage buying (November: USD 709/t; December: USD 700/t). Stocks at SHFE designated warehouses are increasing, with 335kt of pulp on warrant in SHFE warehouses and 38kt at...
Forestry & Paper: DS Smith Packaging Insights
DS Smith released a positive H1 22E trading update this morning: Structural demand trends and momentum persisted during May-October 2021. With “very” positive box volume growth, coupled with higher paper and box pricing, this has been more than enough to offset...
Forestry & Paper: Textiles Fibre Update
Key YTD moves: Cotton +40%; Polyester +35%; HW DWP +29%; China-origin DWP +17%; medium-grade VSF +26%; high-end VSF +25% and Lyocell -8%. Cotton is currently trading at a 48% premium to VSF (YTD average: 23%) and at a 167% premium to polyester (YTD average: 137%). The...