Chronux Research

The leading independent research firm in South Africa

Chronux Research, founded in 2020, is an independent equity research provider focused on the South African market, with coverage spanning over ten sectors and approximately 30 companies. Within the domestic market, Chronux is particularly well recognised for its Industrials, Construction, Mid-Cap and Forestry & Paper research, where the firm combines deep sector knowledge with disciplined financial modelling and a clear, conviction-led investment framework. The team provides a global perspective on key structural and cyclical themes across the sectors covered. Chronux delivers fundamental equity research incorporating both long and short ideas with analysis driven by in-house financial models, ongoing dialogue with industry decision-makers and regular engagement with management teams. In addition to company-level research, Chronux facilitates high-level interaction with senior executives and provides access to relevant industry experts, supporting clients in forming differentiated investment views. Chronux has also been committed to developing the next generation of analysts and advancing careers within the investment industry, supported by a strong and engaged institutional client base.

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Cement Import Monitor

November, December 2021 Key message: November and December imports continued the relatively low levels from October at 81kt and 43kt respectively, well off September levels of 151kt. This is a more expected outcome following supply chain disruptions. November and...

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Key message: High price inflation matched falling demand as the post-Covid lockdown DIY boom subsides. Local manufacturing helped gain market share. Italtile released 1H FY22 results. System-wide turnover declined by 1% despite high price inflation as demand waned...

Forestry & Paper: Sappi Q1 22A Insights

Q1 was much better than expected: Q1 22A marked the 6th consecutive quarter of improving EBITDA to USD 240mn, 25% ahead of our USD192mn (consensus: USD 195mn) and EPS of USD 0.20/share, 43% ahead of our USD 0.14/share (consensus: USD 0.12/share). Net debt was also...

SA Banks

SARB Bank Data Review – positive trends in 2021 The SARB has published its banking sector data for December 2021, allowing us to perform a review of the years financial performance. This should provide some insight into the financial year end trends that will be...

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Key message: Mining and manufacturing maintenance spending – long neglected – is picking up and this is positive for Hudaco. Market share gains have helped. FY22 could be another strong year. Hudaco reported FY21 results. Revenue and operating profit increased 8% and...

Forestry & Paper: Industry Insights

Pulp prices broadly stable: NOREXECO pulp futures for 23E imply a 12-18% decline in Europe, while prices in China are expected to decline by 2-6%. In North America, Verso and Eldorado are out with a USD 40/t price increase for BHK in February and softwood producers...

EOH – 1H22 Trading Update

Evaluating a capital raise The key feature of the update is confirmation it’s seeking capital market access pre-October 2022 to redeem, in full, its R1.5bn bridge facility that has interest rates ramping up towards 12% in 2H22. Whilst options are being explored, an...

Mondi: European Containerboard Insights

Supply/demand dynamics and cost inflation drove kraftliner (+49%) & testliner (63%) prices higher in 2021: Containerboard demand has been strong since Q4 20A. Despite previous concerns around oversupply, supply has struggled to match the significant uptick in...

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New Vehicle Sales – January 2022 Key message: January 2022 passenger car sales grew by 26.6% YoY (+3.3% on January 2020). Suzuki has overtaken Hyundai in market share for the first time (and Haval is consistently outselling Kia). NAAMSA released January 2022 new...

Lewis Group – 3Q trading update

Key message: Revenue growth in line with FY22E forecasts. Debtor costs improve considerably. No changes to HEPS outlook. Lewis announced a strong trading update for the nine months to December 2021 – merchandise sales grew by 12.7% compared to the same period the...