Chronux Research

The leading independent research firm in South Africa

Chronux Research, founded in 2020, is an independent equity research provider focused on the South African market, with coverage spanning over ten sectors and approximately 30 companies. Within the domestic market, Chronux is particularly well recognised for its Industrials, Construction, Mid-Cap and Forestry & Paper research, where the firm combines deep sector knowledge with disciplined financial modelling and a clear, conviction-led investment framework. The team provides a global perspective on key structural and cyclical themes across the sectors covered. Chronux delivers fundamental equity research incorporating both long and short ideas with analysis driven by in-house financial models, ongoing dialogue with industry decision-makers and regular engagement with management teams. In addition to company-level research, Chronux facilitates high-level interaction with senior executives and provides access to relevant industry experts, supporting clients in forming differentiated investment views. Chronux has also been committed to developing the next generation of analysts and advancing careers within the investment industry, supported by a strong and engaged institutional client base.

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Key message: Covid delays and cost inflation will likely mute margins in FY22 and FY23. Execution on a large order book remains key. Murray & Roberts hosted an Investor Day. With a large order book, the emphasis is on project delivery. Covid delays and cost...

PPC – FY22 Results

Key message: Cost inflation will be difficult to recover through pricing, although key cost variables are likely to be volatile this year. PPC released FY22 results, with revenue up by 11% (+5% excl. Zimbabwe). Costs increased by 19%, impacted by Zimbabwe (+85% with...

Sirius Real Estate – FY22 results and valuation update

FY22 results and valuation update Key message: Sirius remains in excellent operational shape and its FY22 results were ahead of our expectations. Now down ~40% from its Jan-22 highs and trading in line with NAV, we think it is oversold at current...

Forestry & Paper: Industry Insights

Pulp prices steady, April European pulp consumption down 1% y/y, while European pulp stocks were down 10% y/y and global pulp shipments in May were up 5% y/y: NOREXECO pulp futures for CY 23E imply a 13-17% decline in Europe, and a decline of 12-20% in China. Last...

Afrimat – Investor Day Feedback

Key message: The depth of the management team is apparent, with strong growth prospects in internally funded new projects. The portfolio is moving to a revenue mix of annuity (fixed price: 40-50%) and cyclical (commodity price: 35-70%). Afrimat hosted an Investor Day....

Forestry & Paper: DS Smith H2 22A Packaging Insights

DS Smith delivered on its expectations of a significant increase in profitability in H2 22A (y/y & h/h): Revenue growth of +26% (+15%) was mainly driven by improved pricing (86% of total) and to a lesser extent volume growth (14% of total). Adjusted EBIT +25%...

Forestry & Paper: Industry Insights

Pulp prices rise further: NOREXECO pulp futures for CY 23E imply a 15-20% decline in Europe, and a decline of 12-20% in China. US pulp prices post 6th straight monthly gain, rising by USD 40-100/t as BHK surge outpaces BSK. Graphic Paper prices stable but margins...

Forestry & Paper: Textile Fibre Insights

Key w/w moves: Cotton -4%; Polyester -4%; HW DP +4%; China-origin DP +1%, medium-grade VSF +0%; and high-end VSF +1% and Lyocell +2%. Cotton’s premium to VSF is 27% (2021 average: 30%) and a 119% premium to polyester (2021 average: 150%). The VSF premium to polyester...

Cement Import Monitor

Jan-April 2022 Key message: Cement imports for Jan-April 2022 are 26% down on 2021 levels, with port issues due to flooding being a limiting factor. January to April 2022 saw imports of 304kt, down 26% from the same period in 2021.The 12-month rolling annual import...

Investec Property Fund – FY22 results and valuation update

FY22 results and valuation update Key message: a good recovery in FY22 was driven by improved leasing and operating conditions in the SA portfolio and highly favourable tailwinds in the PEL platform. Relatively strong share price performance over the last twelve...