Chronux Research
The leading independent research firm in South AfricaChronux Research, founded in 2020, is an independent equity research provider focused on the South African market, with coverage spanning over ten sectors and approximately 30 companies. Within the domestic market, Chronux is particularly well recognised for its Industrials, Construction, Mid-Cap and Forestry & Paper research, where the firm combines deep sector knowledge with disciplined financial modelling and a clear, conviction-led investment framework. The team provides a global perspective on key structural and cyclical themes across the sectors covered. Chronux delivers fundamental equity research incorporating both long and short ideas with analysis driven by in-house financial models, ongoing dialogue with industry decision-makers and regular engagement with management teams. In addition to company-level research, Chronux facilitates high-level interaction with senior executives and provides access to relevant industry experts, supporting clients in forming differentiated investment views. Chronux has also been committed to developing the next generation of analysts and advancing careers within the investment industry, supported by a strong and engaged institutional client base.
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Making It PossibleForestry & Paper: Industry Insights
Pulp prices gain further traction, with European pulp prices up 7% w/w in EUR: NOREXECO pulp futures for CY 23E imply a 11-16% decline in Europe, and a decline of 12-20% in China. UTIPULP released May data: European pulp consumption was up 2% y/y (+6% m/m);...
Feedback from Industry Expert Call, Eric Diack, CEO AfriSam
Key message: AfriSam faces the same inflationary pressures as all producers. It is generating enough cash to maintain operations. Download full report
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Key message: Slightly better than expectations, Super Group will deliver a strong performance despite a number of challenges through the period. Super Group released a Trading Update for FY22. HEPS is expected to be between 370-410c, slightly better than our forecast...
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Key message: Gross margins are being maintained despite inflationary pressure, although inventories are high to mitigate supply chain delays. This should unwind somewhat in 2H. Hudaco reported 1H FY22 results. Revenue and operating profit increased 12% and 27%...
Forestry & Paper: Industry Insights
Pulp prices gain further traction, with European pulp prices up 4-5% w/w: NOREXECO pulp futures for CY 23E imply a 10-16% decline in Europe, and a decline of 12-20% in China. APP confirmed a vessel crashed and destroyed a pier bridge at the OKI mill in Indonesia. APP...
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Key message: Management highlighted KAP’s strengths – competitive local manufacturing – and provided more detail on KAP’s weakness – volatility in Safripol. 5-year growth targets are ambitious but achievable. KAP hosted an Analyst Day and provided an Operational...
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Key message: Key sectors showing demand growth, with some lag in passing through price increases. Growth into FY23 expected through international business (organic), lower finance costs and reduced shares in issue. Invicta released FY22 results, with HEPS from...
Forestry & Paper: Textile Fibre Insights
Key w/w moves: Cotton -5%; Polyester -2%; HW DWP +1%; China-origin DWP +1%, medium-grade VSF 0%; and high-end VSF 0% and Lyocell 0%. Cotton’s premium to VSF is 7% (2021 average: 30%) and a 98% premium to polyester (2021 average: 150%). The VSF premium to polyester is...
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Key message: Bidvest is building an international Services division that could ultimately be spun out like BidCorp. Bidvest announced the acquisition of BIC Services Australia for an enterprise value of R1.8bn (UAD160m) effective 7 July 2022. BIS Services provides...
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Auto Anemometer New Vehicle Sales – June 2022 Key message: Passenger sales saw strong growth, but commercial sales are being impacted by local production disruptions. NAAMSA released June 2022 new vehicle sales. Passenger and LCV sales increased...