Chronux Research
The leading independent research firm in South AfricaChronux Research, founded in 2020, is an independent equity research provider focused on the South African market, with coverage spanning over ten sectors and approximately 30 companies. Within the domestic market, Chronux is particularly well recognised for its Industrials, Construction, Mid-Cap and Forestry & Paper research, where the firm combines deep sector knowledge with disciplined financial modelling and a clear, conviction-led investment framework. The team provides a global perspective on key structural and cyclical themes across the sectors covered. Chronux delivers fundamental equity research incorporating both long and short ideas with analysis driven by in-house financial models, ongoing dialogue with industry decision-makers and regular engagement with management teams. In addition to company-level research, Chronux facilitates high-level interaction with senior executives and provides access to relevant industry experts, supporting clients in forming differentiated investment views. Chronux has also been committed to developing the next generation of analysts and advancing careers within the investment industry, supported by a strong and engaged institutional client base.
Our Corporate Sponsored Coverage
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Key message: Some pressure in consumer-facing businesses, but growth still expected. Bidvest released a Trading Statement for the 4 months to October 2023. The tone was cautious with volumes and margins lower than anticipated by management, especially in the...
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Key message: Improved returns and strong cash generation remain under-appreciated. Barloworld released FY23 results. Revenue increased by 14%, with EBITDA and operating profit up 15% and 19% respectively. HEPS from continuing operations increased by 5% to 1156c and a...
Forestry & Paper: Industry Insights
Paper pulp prices continue to gather momentum in China and Europe: Hardwood prices in China edged up 1% further, while softwood was stable. However, the recent weakening of BSK futures could be an early sign of demand weakening in China. For instance, tissue operating...
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Key message: Seasonal factors and a recovery in prices point to a stronger 2H. Shareholder distributions will be a feature going forward. Omnia released 1H FY24 results. HEPS declined 4% on a 14% and 15% decline in revenue and operating profit respectively. The period...
PPC – 1H FY24 Results
Key message: Solid result in weak market, with increased distributions to shareholders expected going forward. PPC released 1H FY24 results, with revenue and EBITDA up 21% and 47% respectively. The EBITDA margin recovered well to 17.3% (from 14.3%) mainly due to a...
Forestry & Paper: Industry Insights
Paper pulp prices continue to gather momentum in China and Europe: Hardwood prices in China edged up 2% further, while softwood was stable. Meanwhile, hardwood jumped 4% in Europe, while softwood too increased by 2%. NOREXECO pulp futures keep edging up and for 24E...
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Key message: Inflation remains high but organic growth still at levels of 4-5% with minimal bolt-on additions. Bidcorp released a Trading Update for the four months to October 2023. Constant currency sales increased by 12.8% with food inflation of approx. 8%. Gross...
Raubex – 1H FY24 Results
Key message: Diversity of earnings helps replace high-margin Beitbridge project. Raubex recently reported 1H FY24 results. HEPS increased 19% on a 15% and 14% increase in revenue and operating profit. An interim dividend of 63c (3x cover) was declared. Materials...
Forestry & Paper: Sappi Q4 23A Insights
Financial highlights from the quarter: Group sales improved by 4% q-o-q (-28% y-o-y), missing our estimate by 4% (driven by Europe and North America). Meanwhile, group EBITDA improved by 58% q-o-q (-57% y-o-y), 25% ahead of our estimate. This was largely due to a...
Forestry & Paper: Sappi Ltd Q4 23E Insights
Sappi to report Q4 23E results on Thursday, 9 November: EBITDA has fallen for three consecutive quarters; however, we expect Q4 23E EBITDA to increase by 27% q-o-q (-66% y-o-y) to $135mn (+41% y/y; -14% q/q) with EPS of $0.08/share. This is driven largely by improved...