Chronux Research

The leading independent research firm in South Africa

Chronux Research, founded in 2020, is an independent equity research provider focused on the South African market, with coverage spanning over ten sectors and approximately 30 companies. Within the domestic market, Chronux is particularly well recognised for its Industrials, Construction, Mid-Cap and Forestry & Paper research, where the firm combines deep sector knowledge with disciplined financial modelling and a clear, conviction-led investment framework. The team provides a global perspective on key structural and cyclical themes across the sectors covered. Chronux delivers fundamental equity research incorporating both long and short ideas with analysis driven by in-house financial models, ongoing dialogue with industry decision-makers and regular engagement with management teams. In addition to company-level research, Chronux facilitates high-level interaction with senior executives and provides access to relevant industry experts, supporting clients in forming differentiated investment views. Chronux has also been committed to developing the next generation of analysts and advancing careers within the investment industry, supported by a strong and engaged institutional client base.

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Making It Possible

Forestry & Paper: Industry Insights

Mondi set to return c.€775mn (R15.8bn/£670mn) to shareholders following the sale of its Russian assets, in the form of a special dividend of €1.60/share (R32.6/£1.38): According to Mondi, the accompanying share consolidation is intended, as far as possible, to...

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Key message: A major restructuring over the next 18 months will see a return to core Mining and Chemical sectors. A doubling of core EBITDA by FY26 is a focus. AECI has recently announced a significant restructuring process to focus on core strengths - Mining and...

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Key message: While weaker than expected, cyclically weak global polymer margins are the main driver of earnings downgrades. The rest of the business performed top expectations (PG Bison, Unitrans) or better (Feltex, Restonic). KAP released a Trading Update for 5...

Forestry & Paper: Industry Insights

Paper pulp prices increase further: Pulp prices improved by 4-5% in Europe, +2% in the US and hardwood pulp edged up a further 1% in China. NOREXECO pulp futures for 24E infer the pulp rally is largely complete in China with some further improvement for hardwood (+4%)...

SRE: 1H FY24 results and valuation update

Key message: Sirius once again delivered strong operational and financial performance in 1H FY24, whilst concluding a significantly oversubscribed capital raise. While the dilution and interim cash drag from the capital raise will soften our near-term FFO per share...

Forestry & Paper: DS Smith Paper Packaging Insights (H1 24A)

DS Smith H1 24A results revealed a decrease in profitability in line with guidance: Revenue fell by -18% y-o-y (-10% h-o-h), largely impacted by a weaker pricing environment (-£273mn: from lower packaging prices). Meanwhile corrugated volumes were down 4.7% y-o-y...

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Key message: Light commercial sales and passenger vehicles impacted by the stressed consumer and business environment. NAAMSA released November 2023 new vehicle sales. Passenger and LCV sales decreased 8.9 % YoY with passenger sales down 10.6% YoY. Sales of vehicles...

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Key message: Reunert is benefiting from an increase in capacity utilisation of its manufacturing divisions, and this should be margin accretive. Reunert released FY23 results. Revenue and segment operating profit increased 23% and 28% respectively. Diluted HEPS...

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Key message: Moving to become a focussed bevcan producer, there is value uplift through improved performance (Divfood), better commercial terms with customers and the removal of liquidity concerns. Nampak has successfully completed a R1bn rights offer (38%...

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Key message: Good defensive qualities and offshore exposure should help Invicta grow earnings in a tough environment. Invicta released 1H FY24 results, with sustainable HEPS up 1% to 277c on an 12% revenue increase. Sustainable operating profit increased by 8% with...