Chronux Research
The leading independent research firm in South AfricaChronux Research, founded in 2020, is an independent equity research provider focused on the South African market, with coverage spanning over ten sectors and approximately 30 companies. Within the domestic market, Chronux is particularly well recognised for its Industrials, Construction, Mid-Cap and Forestry & Paper research, where the firm combines deep sector knowledge with disciplined financial modelling and a clear, conviction-led investment framework. The team provides a global perspective on key structural and cyclical themes across the sectors covered. Chronux delivers fundamental equity research incorporating both long and short ideas with analysis driven by in-house financial models, ongoing dialogue with industry decision-makers and regular engagement with management teams. In addition to company-level research, Chronux facilitates high-level interaction with senior executives and provides access to relevant industry experts, supporting clients in forming differentiated investment views. Chronux has also been committed to developing the next generation of analysts and advancing careers within the investment industry, supported by a strong and engaged institutional client base.
Our Corporate Sponsored Coverage
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Key message: Super Group continues to be substantially undervalued – despite strong SG Fleet results and a robust performance in SA. Super Group released 1H FY24 results, with HEPS declining by 16% to 201.2c off a 12% and 4% increase in revenue and operating profit...
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Key message: The business model continues to allow for steady constant currency growth. Bidcorp released 1H FY24 results. Constant currency sales increased by 10.8%. Gross margins maintained as inflation was largely passed through to customers, but the cost base...
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Key message: Tile manufacturing overcapacity in the SADC region will impact volumes (and margins). This structural change in the market will create challenging times for some years. Italtile released 1H FY24 results. System-wide revenue (including franchises) declined...
Forestry & Paper Mondi: H2 23e Earnings Preview
Mondi is set to report its H2 23e results on February 22nd: We anticipate a full-year EBITDA of €1,157mn, with a projected Q4 23e EBITDA of €209m (or €194mn excluding the forestry fair value gain). This performance is expected to drive underlying EPS to €1.05/share...
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Key message: Relatively steady state earnings are expected for future years off a well-developed pipeline. Calgro released a Trading Statement for FY24. HEPS is expected to increase by at least 20% (183c). While trading conditions are tough, sales have increased in...
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Key message: Volumes and prices remain weak with consequent margin pressure. The DIY market remains very competitive with cheaper products undercutting Cashbuild. Cashbuild released a Trading Statement for 1H FY24. HEPS is expected to fall between 15-25% (to...
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Key message: Unitrans may be sold for up to R6bn. The division has been identified as non-core and a sales process is not surprising. The ability to reduce debt would be a positive. There have been reports of a possible sale of Unitrans for up to R6bn. That would...
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Key message: Slight improvement from low base – some election year fiddling also suspected with very high planned maintenance. Data is obtained from the Eskom Data Portal and current Eskom and our own estimates. Forecast peak demand is obtained from Eskom data. We use...
Forestry & Paper: Sappi Q1 24A Insights
Sappi released Q1 24A results this morning: EBITDA was lower q-o-q, in line with guidance due to the impact of planned shuts ($45mn, ahead of the $40m guidance). Reported EBITDA came in at $156mn, with EPS of $0.08/share (excluding special items). Adjusting reported...
Forestry & Paper: Sappi Q1 24E Results and AGM tomorrow
Sappi Q1 24E results tomorrow: Sappi will release Q1 24E results tomorrow at 8am, with a conference call at 4pm (Register for conference call or Register for the webcast). Sappi will also host its AGM tomorrow at 2pm (Download ESG report). Q1 24E earnings guidance:...