Chronux Research
The leading independent research firm in South AfricaChronux Research, founded in 2020, is an independent equity research provider focused on the South African market, with coverage spanning over ten sectors and approximately 30 companies. Within the domestic market, Chronux is particularly well recognised for its Industrials, Construction, Mid-Cap and Forestry & Paper research, where the firm combines deep sector knowledge with disciplined financial modelling and a clear, conviction-led investment framework. The team provides a global perspective on key structural and cyclical themes across the sectors covered. Chronux delivers fundamental equity research incorporating both long and short ideas with analysis driven by in-house financial models, ongoing dialogue with industry decision-makers and regular engagement with management teams. In addition to company-level research, Chronux facilitates high-level interaction with senior executives and provides access to relevant industry experts, supporting clients in forming differentiated investment views. Chronux has also been committed to developing the next generation of analysts and advancing careers within the investment industry, supported by a strong and engaged institutional client base.
Our Corporate Sponsored Coverage
Making It PossibleCalgro M3 – FY24 Results
Key message: Relatively steady state earnings are expected for future years off a well-developed pipeline. Calgro released FY24 results. HEPS increased 38% to 189.9c on a 16% decline in revenue (construction activities were slowed down in 2H as a conservative measure...
Forestry & Paper: Industry Insights
Pulp prices continued to rally (US: +3%; Europe: +2-3% and China: 0-1%) as supply challenges persist: APP shut its pulp line (1.1Mt/yr BEK) at their Jambi mill in Indonesia following a boiler explosion on 28 April. Meanwhile, CMPC plans to resume full capacity at its...
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Key message: A big hurdle has been cleared – the sale of Bevcan Nigeria. The price appears reasonable given the challenges faced by the business and the weak Nigerian consumer. Nampak announced the sale of Bevcan Nigeria for USD68.5m (R1.25bn). The net proceeds will...
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Key message: Super Group continues to be substantially undervalued – despite strong SG Fleet results and a robust performance in SA. We update our forecasts after meeting with management. Markets in general remain weak with pre-election concerns holding back SA and a...
Raubex – FY24 Results
Key message: Diversity of earnings has helped replace the high-margin Beitbridge project and sets Raubex up for sustainable growth. Raubex reported FY24 results. HEPS increased 21% on a 14% and 20% increase in revenue and operating profit. A dividend of 155c (3x...
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Key message: Higher planned maintenance through summer has improved the coal fleet performance. Lower unplanned outages have improved the loadshedding outlook. Data is obtained from the Eskom Data Portal and current Eskom and our own estimates. Forecast peak demand is...
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Key message: Passenger sales remain weak with 2024 set to be a tough year for the car market. NAAMSA released April 2024 new vehicle sales. Passenger and LCV sales increased 2.4% YoY (although down 20.9% on a sales per day basis) with passenger sales up 6.1% YoY. As...
Forestry & Paper: Industry Insights
Mondi Board has decided that the DS Smith transaction would not be in the best interests of its shareholders: Following a period of due diligence, and after carefully considering the value the combination with DS Smith would deliver to Mondi´s shareholders, Mondi does...
SRE: FY24 trading and valuation update
Key message: Sirius’ FY24 performance is poised to meet expectations. Management continues to create value through strong operational performance, and the acquisition pipeline following the Nov-23 capital raise has been executed swiftly and effectively. ...
Forestry & Paper: Industry Insights
Finnish mills can now resume production, following the end of the strike on 8 April (initially launched on 11 March): The mills can be restarted when raw material is again available and shipments from the ports to customers begin. Pulp prices continued to increase...