Chronux Research

The leading independent research firm in South Africa

Chronux Research, founded in 2020, is an independent equity research provider focused on the South African market, with coverage spanning over ten sectors and approximately 30 companies. Within the domestic market, Chronux is particularly well recognised for its Industrials, Construction, Mid-Cap and Forestry & Paper research, where the firm combines deep sector knowledge with disciplined financial modelling and a clear, conviction-led investment framework. The team provides a global perspective on key structural and cyclical themes across the sectors covered. Chronux delivers fundamental equity research incorporating both long and short ideas with analysis driven by in-house financial models, ongoing dialogue with industry decision-makers and regular engagement with management teams. In addition to company-level research, Chronux facilitates high-level interaction with senior executives and provides access to relevant industry experts, supporting clients in forming differentiated investment views. Chronux has also been committed to developing the next generation of analysts and advancing careers within the investment industry, supported by a strong and engaged institutional client base.

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Suzano is responding to the ongoing decline in paper pulp prices in Europe and China by cutting about 4% of its production for 2024: This equates to a reduction of up to 436kt of bleached eucalyptus kraft (BEK) market pulp, which they believe won't yield adequate...

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Key message: Slowing mining cycle in SA but Mongolia strong. However, the violation of export controls in Russia is a concern. Barloworld released a Trading Update for the 11 months to 31 August 2024. Revenue declined by 7.4% and EBITDA declined by 14.3% with the...

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Key message: Volumes and margins continue to decline but we do expect a recovery in the cement market into CY25. PPC released a Trading Update for the four months ending July 2024. The market remains weak, with group revenue down 2.1%. Average cement volumes declined...

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Paper pulp prices remain under pressure across key regions such as Europe, China, and North America: European hardwood pulp prices have dropped further by -2%, while softwood pulp eased by -1% and prices in China were just in the red. In contrast, APP Indonesia is...

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Key message: Back to the low risk contracting model, the order book outlook looks promising for a margin uplift.   WBHO released FY24 results. Overall revenue and operating profit increased by 16% and 27% respectively with the operating margin increasing to 5.1%...

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Key message: Growth in the order book in all divisions and good execution is driving strong earnings growth. Raubex released a Trading Statement for 1H FY25. HEPS is expected to increase between 45-55% (275-294c). Operating conditions across the divisions are...

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While inventory adjustments are happening in Europe, the market outlook, especially for hardwood pulp, remains challenging, with significant price declines expected in the coming year: Paper pulp prices in Europe and China are facing further pressure, with hardwood...

AfroCentric Investment Corporation FY 24A Insights

Following the trading statement on 30 August, the FY 24A results held few surprises as AfroCentric had already indicated a mixed performance across its segments: Revenue growth was muted at +1% YoY, while operating profit rose by +2%, leading to a slight margin...

KAP – FY24 Results

Key message: Cautious outlook from management with 3-4 year restructuring and stabilisation plan after recent high capex spend. KAP released FY24 results. HEPS declined 4% to 45.3c on a 2% and 11% decline in revenue and operating profit. HEPS was inflated by R173m of...

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Key message: Flat core headline earnings are a positive in a mixed result, but overall volumes increased driven by the Port of Maputo. Grindrod reported 1H FY24 results. Core segmental EBITDA declined by 7% (core segmental EBITDA margin falling to 27.5% from 29.5%)...