Chronux Research
The leading independent research firm in South AfricaChronux Research, founded in 2020, is an independent equity research provider focused on the South African market, with coverage spanning over ten sectors and approximately 30 companies. Within the domestic market, Chronux is particularly well recognised for its Industrials, Construction, Mid-Cap and Forestry & Paper research, where the firm combines deep sector knowledge with disciplined financial modelling and a clear, conviction-led investment framework. The team provides a global perspective on key structural and cyclical themes across the sectors covered. Chronux delivers fundamental equity research incorporating both long and short ideas with analysis driven by in-house financial models, ongoing dialogue with industry decision-makers and regular engagement with management teams. In addition to company-level research, Chronux facilitates high-level interaction with senior executives and provides access to relevant industry experts, supporting clients in forming differentiated investment views. Chronux has also been committed to developing the next generation of analysts and advancing careers within the investment industry, supported by a strong and engaged institutional client base.
Our Corporate Sponsored Coverage
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Fourth quarter EBITDA was better than expected: EBITDA excl. special items came in at $195mn (+16% YoY & +29% QoQ), 10% ahead of consensus ($178mn) as well as our estimate ($186mn). Excluding the forestry fair value loss (-$31mn), adjusted EBITDA came in at...
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New Vehicle Sales – October 2024 Key message: Passenger sales continue upward trend with rest of car market lagging behind. NAAMSA released October 2024 new vehicle sales. Passenger and LCV sales increased 6.5% YoY with passenger sales up 14.5% YoY. Light Commercial...
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Key message: Margins under pressure after weak consumer sentiment in 1H impacted by pre-election concerns. CMH released 1H FY25 results with HEPS down 32% to 179.3c off a 1% and 22% decline in revenue and operating profit respectively. A total dividend of 102c was...
Afrimat – 1H FY25 Results
Key message: A better 2H is expected after a weak 1H. Afrimat will look to consolidate the Lafarge acquisition and should benefit from improved iron ore sales and anthracite performance. Afrimat released 1H FY25 results, with HEPS declining 80% to 53c on a 44.3%...
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The overall tone of the third-quarter trading update call was in line with the company’s comments regarding trading conditions— “muted”: Underlying performance deteriorated, and although Mondi confirmed that volumes have improved ("are reasonable"), the recovery...
Calgro M3 – 1H FY25 Results
Key message: With Bankenveld adding to the development pipeline, Calgro has secured many years of steady organic growth. Calgro released 1H FY25 results. HEPS increased 29% to 101.14c on a 26% decline in revenue (construction activities were slowed down in 1H as a...
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In the third quarter, Norske Skog experienced a significant drop in profitability, largely due to a one-off insurance recognition in the previous quarter, which skewed the comparison: Despite a +9% YoY and +5% QoQ increase in revenue, EBITDA plunged by -72% YoY and...
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Mondi is set to provide its third-quarter trading update tomorrow: We expect underlying EBITDA of €311mn, which is approximately 5% ahead of consensus estimates. This figure factors in a forestry fair value loss of -€15mn and a planned maintenance impact of -€42mn (Q2...
Metair – Initiation
Key message: Restructuring, debt reduction and simplification are key features as Metair focusses on the regional automotive market. We initiate on Metair released following their 1H FY24 results. A HEPS loss of 3c was reported on a 4% decline in revenue and 59%...
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New Vehicle Sales – September 2024 Key message: Passenger sales continue upward trend with rest of car market lagging behind. NAAMSA released September 2024 new vehicle sales. Passenger and LCV sales decreased 4.0% YoY with passenger sales up 1.9% YoY. Light...